nfl odds week 4 2020

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 18th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Ravens. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
NOTE: If you have followed this series all season long be prepared, these playoff posts are very long and highly detailed. If this is your first time reading, I hope you enjoy and can find the time to finish the whole thing.
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Ravens’ Passing Defense
After yet another great performance throwing the ball the Buffalo Bills are proving that they can beat anyone and everyone through the air. In their past 4 games the Bills have played the #11 (DEN), #18 (NWE), #6 (MIA), and #8 (IND) pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders Pass Defense DVOA, and have gone 108/153 (70.6%) for 1415 yards and a 12:2 TD:INT Ratio (Josh Allen’s stats here). Making the Bills recent run of success more impressive is that they have been successful against starkly different schemes, with tangible evidence the past two weeks. The Dolphins, who predominately run man coverage, were shredded for 388 passing yards, 124 of which came while targeting First Team All-Pro CB Xavien Howard. The Bills followed up this performance with Josh Allen picking apart the Colt’s Zone First Scheme for a Playoff leading passer rating of 121.6 (His regular season Passer Rating was 107.2). All of this leads to the following conclusion, with the way the Bills are playing right now there does not seem to be any specific scheme, team, or player that is capable of stopping the Bills’ passing attack.
Against the Ravens the Bills will need to find a way to beat Press Man Coverage. With one of the most physically gifted set of DBs in the NFL, headlined by Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens are particularly adept at this scheme. Their top two corners have both earned All-Pro honors at least once in their career primarily due to their physicality, but it is their ball skills which put them over the top. In 164 combined games Peters and Humphrey have 42 INTs, 20 FF, 11 FR, and 9 Defensive TDs. With the growing expectation that the Bills will primarily run 10 personnel (1RB, 4WR) the Ravens will likely spend the majority of Saturday in their Nickel package meaning that Jimmy Smith will join the previously mentioned CBs on the field. This sets up likely man matchups of Peters on Diggs, Smith on Brown, Humphrey in the Slot covering Beasley, and one of the two safeties (Chuck Clark, DeShon Elliott) on Gabe Davis. In this alignment the Ravens would be forced to choose between blitzing the safety not covering Davis or having that player shade deep over the top to Diggs side of the field. At the end of the day this will be a game of 1-on-1 matchups with the winner determined by which side can consistently beat the other.
The Ravens’ Press Man is able to excel because of their skill in the secondary but where it becomes one of the most dangerous schemes in the NFL is their proficiency and consistency in rushing the passer. For the 3rd straight season the Ravens lead the NFL in Blitz %, this year blitzing 44.1% of the time (Dolphins are 2nd at 40.6%). This facilitated an environment where the Ravens were able to pressure opposing QBs on 24.0% of their drop backs (NFL-11) and sack those QBs 39 times (NFL-14). The Press Man and Pass Rush work in concert by reducing the ability for offenses to complete quick short passes which then allows the pass rush more time to disrupt the QB. The Ravens will send anywhere from 5-8 players at the QB with the players primarily running up field being Patrick Queen (MLB) and Matt Judon (OLB) but when forced into Nickel concepts the Ravens will not hesitate to send either safety. All of this allowed the 2019 Ravens to put constant pressure on Josh Allen during their game last season ultimately resulting in 5 sacks for a loss (6 total) with 4 of them occurring with 5+ blitzers (#1, #2, #3, #4). It is however important to note that the Buffalo Bills offense from 2019 looks absolutely nothing like they do in 2020, in fact it is remarkable how drastically different they truly look.
This matchup comes down to the Bills receivers being able to beat whichever DB is lined up in front of them. If the Bills can accomplish this, then it will allow Allen to get rid of the ball before the Ravens pass rush is able to get to him. If the reverse were to occur it will create an environment where multiple blindside forced fumbles and/or interceptions may occur which would be incredibly difficult for the Bills to recover from. While on paper this matchup may be extremely close the reality is that the Bills simply have to many weapons that excel at beating man coverage for the Ravens to consistently stop. Stefon Diggs is widely regarded as one of the best receivers against man coverage in the entire NFL while the quickness of Cole Beasley provides for the ability to continuously beat man coverage in the intermediate range. Couple this with the Ravens struggles in covering TEs and RBs while still considering that the Ravens will need to find a way to contend with Gabe Davis and John Brown and the Bills, surprisingly, have a massive advantage here.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Defense
With Zack Moss going down with a season ending injury Wildcard weekend most Bills’ fans have spent this week wondering who RB2 will be behind Devin Singletary. Up until Thursday afternoon it was very clearly a three-horse race between T.J. Yeldon, Antonio Williams, and Devonta Freeman but via a statement from Sean McDermott we now know the winner of that race. T.J. Yeldon will suit up on Saturday night and be the RB2 behind Devin Singletary. McDermott also did make it very clear that this did not preclude the Bills from activating Antonio Williams for the Ravens game. Regardless of if it is one or two backs behind Singletary we can say with a fair degree of certainty that he will be the Bellcow back moving forward for Buffalo, meaning you can expect him to see north of 75% of the offensive snaps. One concern with that is in games where Singletary has exceeded 60% of offensive snaps (6) in 2020 he has a Y/A of 3.6 and in all other games he has a Y/A of 5.1. Let me make this abundantly clear, and see all of my previous posts for proof, I believe that the majority of the issues running the ball in 2020 are due to the blocking up front and not the RBs carrying the ball however, this stark contrast in Y/A should be a concern moving forward for a Bills’ team who at times will need to show they can move the ball on the ground if they want to continue winning football games.
This section now lends itself to a breakdown of the backups to Singletary on Saturday, one we know, and one is a maybe. With that in mind we start with T.J. Yeldon who has demonstrated the ability to be a competent runner of the football throughout his career with an acceptable 4.1 Y/A. Yeldon possesses exceptional agility for a player that is 6’1” 225lb and at times in his career has been one of the more dangerous receiving options in the NFL coming out of the backfield. The main knock Bills’ fans have on Yeldon is his fumbling where he has lost the ball 7 times on 677 career touches (1 per 97), for context Singletary has 5 on 374 (1 per 75). Next to discuss is the new darling of Bills Mafia, undrafted rookie Antonio Williams. One of the bigger unknowns on the Bills’ roster, Williams busted onto the scene against Miami with 83 all-purpose yards on 13 touches for 2 TDs in just one half. Out of UNC the 5’11” 215lb RB, who looks and plays much bigger, possesses exceptional lateral quickness and does not shy away from contact making him a dangerous player once he gets to the second level. Also, while it is highly improbable, we see him Saturday, I would be remised to not mention the signing of 2-time Pro Bowler Devonta Freeman who just a few years back was considered one of the best RBs in the game. Freeman suffered a groin injury in 2018 which required surgery which has since deprived him of some of the quickness that made him one of the biggest home run threats in the league. Still, Freeman provides a veteran presence with gas left in the tank, at just 28, he could be an integral part of the Bills’ Playoff push. All these players may play a factor if the Bills continue to advance in the playoffs, but Bills Mafia should fully expect T.J. Yeldon to do so on Saturday night.
If and when the Bills do run the ball, they will be doing so against a team which ranks 26th in the NFL (The Bills rank 24th) in Y/A against at 4.6. The Ravens also rank 27th in both 20+ A (1 per 32) and 40+ A (1 per 127) which is indicative of their blitz dependent defense. When the Ravens defense aligns with the proper gap they typically bring the ball carrier down in the backfield as the team has combined for 71 TFLs but when they miss ball carriers tend to pick up chunk yardage leaving their secondary to clean up free runners. This of course assumes the ball carrier can bypass the Ravens’ 3-4 alignment which is championed by one of the deeper DLs in all of football. On the right side is, long time Broncos DE, Derek Wolfe who typically lines up somewhere from the B to C gap and is one of the better run stuffers at the position. In the middle is the behemoth known as Brandon Williams who specializes as a NT, a dying position in the NFL that Williams still excels at. Lastly left of Williams is Calais Campbell who while listed as a DE plays more like a DT because of the blitz packages which the Ravens use. Campbell may be 34 and towards the end of his career but this exceptionally physical and athletic lineman will threaten Bills LG Ike Boettger all night.
The last group of players to cover for the Ravens is one of the most athletically gifted groups in the entire NFL, the Ravens LBs. Strength, Speed, Quickness, you name it, the 6 primary LBs on this team have it all. They are headlined by 21-year-old MLB Patrick Queen who ran a blazing 4.5 at the rookie combine in 2020. About as promising as they come Queen lead the Ravens in Tackles and TFLs and will challenge Josh Allen on any QB Draws the Bills may attempt. Next to him is either Pass Rush specialist Matt Judon or Pass Coverage specialist Tyus Bowser. Judon earned his second straight Pro Bowl selection because of his propensity to pressure the QB with his 4th straight season of 6+ sacks from the OLB position. Bowser, not nearly the pass rusher Judon is, instead has 3 INTs this season and an astounding 42.2 passer rating against (On just 15 targets). There are other players of note like ILB L.J. Fort, long time vet Pernell McPhee, or even the highly sought after Yannick Ngakoue but all you really need to know is that regardless of pass or run this unit has the ability to get into the backfield or chase down players that get outside of it.
EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Ravens’ Passing Offense
Against the Colts the Bills’ struggled at times against the pass with the most damage coming from the Colts’ TEs and the 6’4” rookie WR Michael Pittman. In isolation Phillip Rivers 300+ pass yard day implies that the secondary struggled covering their responsibilities, in reality the issue lay elsewhere. Rivers finished the 2020 season with a Time-to-Throw of just 2.52s (NFL-6) which he continued into the playoffs making it difficult for the Bills to get any pressure on the Indy QB. In fact, it was so difficult that the Bills had only 1 QB hit the entire game. This is the same team that in their last 6 games, post their Bye Week, was averaging 5.5 QB Hits per game. With the Bills running the Palms Scheme they are highly dependent on either pressure or extended Time-to-Throw in order to get into their secondary transitions, neither of those happened on Saturday which is why the Colts were so successful through the air.
Against the Ravens the Bills should be able to get more players in the vicinity of Lamar Jackson than they did Rivers. Of the 41 players with more than 128 pass attempts in 2020 Lamar ranked 38th in Time-To-Throw holding onto the ball for an average of 2.98 seconds. This was a primary reason that Lamar was sacked 29 times (NFL-13) and fumbled the ball 10 times. Obviously, the challenge here is that while teams can occasionally get pressure on Lamar, and even bring him down, the counter of his rushing ability poses a bigger threat (More on that in the rushing section). Credit is still due to Lamar and his OL who lost 2019 All-Pro LT Ronnie Stanley to an ankle injury just 6 games into the season and had to flip their RT, Orlando Brown Jr., over to LT and plug and play from there. While the main threat of Lamar is undoubtedly his legs, he did finish 2020 with 2757 passing yards, 26 Passing TDs, and just 9 INTs by utilizing his receiving weapons to the best of their abilities.
At receiver the Ravens don’t have one imposing weapon, but they do have a slew of good options. First and foremost of these options is 2019 1st round draft pick Marquise “Hollywood” Brown who some tried to drop the “Bust” tag on in the middle of the season after he had a 4-game stretch where he caught just 6 balls for 55 yards and 1 TD. In opposition to that ideal try taking those 4 games out of the season and then pacing it to 16 games, when doing that Browns’ season would be 65 catches for 892 yards and 9 TDs, a solid season for any NFL player. He also answered the bell Wildcard weekend raking in 7 catches for 109 yards against a stout Tennessee secondary. Outside of him the only other receivers of note are Willie Snead, a vet who built his name in New Orleans and is a solid option at WR, Devin Duvernay, a lightning quick 2020 3rd round draft pick, and Miles Boykin, their big bodied WR who has a knack for bodying opposing defenders. But by far their most dangerous weapon in the passing game is not a WR but instead their TE, one of the best in the league, Mark Andrews. Andrews is a walking Tonka Truck that is built the same way as Dawson Knox with better hands and a more complete set of receiving skills. This is Lamar’s check down option which is a primary reason he shared the team lead in receptions (58) and finished second in receiving yards (701) meaning he should be the Bills’ biggest concern in the air on Saturday night.
For the Bills to dominate this battle they will need to get pressure on Lamar while simultaneously maintaining contain to avoid him escaping the pocket. Assuming they can accomplish this, which is a tall order, they will need to avoid letting all 3 of the Ravens primary receivers beat them deep and put a big body, say Tremaine Edmunds, on Mark Andrews. RBs have yet to prove a consistent threat for the Ravens through the air in 2020 accounting for just 15.8% of targets and 18.3% of catches but are something to monitor Saturday night as the Bills try to contain Lamar while putting a spy in the middle to avoid a big run. Buffalo must win this matchup, and should, if they have any chance of winning this game. A takeaway or two through the air wouldn’t hurt either.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Ravens’ Rushing Offense
The Bills had no answers against the Colts run game Wildcard weekend giving up the most rushing yards they have since the Cardinals game on November 15, 2020. Most of Buffalo’s success came when the Colts most powerful back, Jonathan Taylor, was running the ball holding him to just 3.7 Y/A but they had issues with the quicker players. Nyheim Hines only rushed the ball 6 times but accounted for 75 yards on carries of 4, 1, 29, 3, 33, and 5. This stat line should worry a Bills’ fan base that is hoping the Bills can beat a team stacked with shifty players and advance to their first AFC Championship Game since 1993.
The Ravens offense is built off an option scheme the likes of which the NFL has never seen. This offense can execute everything and anything on the ground and it all starts with QB Lamar Jackson. On option plays the QB will generally key off one defender and read which “option” said player chooses to defend. An example, a designed handoff to the right side of the line except all linemen wash down to the left and leave the defensive end unblocked. When this occurs it forces the defensive end to choose between scraping down to the RB taking the supposed handoff or to maintain contain on the QB (See example here). Lamar Jackson is an expert at reading such defenders and even in the rare event where he keeps the ball when he should hand it off, he has the athleticism to beat the defender to the edge. When handing the ball off he primarily will be handing it to Gus Edwards or J.K. Dobbins. Gus the Bus is bigger than Melvin Gordon but plays with the speed of Alvin Kamara which has allowed him to maintain a Y/A of 5.0+ in each of his first 3 seasons. J.K. Dobbins is the smaller, faster, and quicker of the two which makes for a good change of pace from Edwards. This three headed monster has created for the Ravens one of the best rushing attacks in NFL history which continues to defy the mantra that the NFL is just a passing league.
The second part of the Ravens that make them so deadly running the football is their offensive line. At the two guard spots are Bradley Bozeman (LG) and Ben Powers (RG) who each possess incredible strength which allows them control defenders at the time of the snap. Neither is exceptionally gifted at pulling or blocking in the open field but their strength couples nicely with the athleticism of the Ravens backfield. Between them is Center Patrick Mekari who took the starting Job from Matt Skura midway through the season after snapping issues forced him to the bench. Mekari is a big bruiser like his guards Bozeman and Powers which gives the Ravens just south of half a ton of Man in the middle of their line. At RT is veteran D.J. Fluker who was chosen 11th overall by the San Diego Chargers in 2013. Fluker now on his 4th team in 8 seasons is a competent RT crushing the scales at nearly 350lb but is dealing with a nagging knee injury which is something to monitor. Last is LT Orlando Brown who was laughed at for only putting up 14 on the bench press at his combine three years ago and has quieted the doubters by being named to his 2nd straight Pro Bowl. In all this is an above average OL built perfectly for a Lamar Jackson lead offense.
Buffalo will need to slow down the Ravens run game if they have any chance of winning on Saturday and this may be an odd thing to read, but the Bills defense actually lends itself to do just that. There has been discussion all week on Reddit, Twitter, and everywhere else of who will play the spy for the Bills against the Ravens and while they assuredly will occasionally spy, with Edmunds, Milano, or Poyer, the Bills’ Palms Scheme is actually proficient at slowing down mobile QBs. In this scheme the Bills will have multiple defenders zoned in the middle of the field, effectively playing a coverage spy on Lamar while also holding an advantage on the outside via their tradeoff concepts. In the event Lamar does break outside the pocket the Bills defense allows the boundary guarding CB to step forward to Lamar while the safety over the top takes the receiver. This is how the Bills defense is built and while an incredibly difficult scheme to run it is one the Bills have mastered. Don’t take this description of the Bills’ defense to say they will nullify Lamar Jackson but realize that the Bills have the tools to somewhat contain him, that is assuming they play a perfect game.
EDGE: Ravens 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Ravens’ Special Teams
Throughout 2020 the Bills’ average starting field position was their own 30.7-yard line (NFL-6). Against the Colts their average starting field position was their own 15.4-yard line. The Bills would obviously go on to win this game, but field position has proved to be an indicator of success in 2020 as each team finishing within the Top-8 made the playoffs. This leads to a defense of one of the Bills most polarizing players, Andre Roberts, who has been integral to the Bills’ success in this measure and the insinuation that he was a major contributing factor in the Bills’ field position issues Wildcard weekend is not backed up by any tangible evidence. In the first half of the Colts’ game the Bills’ average starting field position was the 7.8-yard line primarily because of an exceptional Colts’ ST unit and the bend, don’t break, style of the Bills’ defense. How did each of the Colts’ first 6 drives end? Punt downed at the Bills’ 3, Magical kickoff dies on the Bills’ 15, Punt fair catch at the Bills’ 11, Kickoff returned by Roberts’ to the 12 with a 6 yard penalty bringing it back to the Bills’ 6, Colt’s Turnover on Downs at the Bills’ 4, Colts kneel before halftime. For the Bills’ this game was an aberration, and one I have confidence they will clean up against the Ravens, mainly because I have confidence in Andre Roberts.
Outside of the return game the Special Teams group for Buffalo continues to be one of the best in the NFL. Corey Bojorquez rightfully received a vote to the All-Pro team, and it could be argued he deserved more. Bojo punted 4 times Wildcard Weekend averaging 47.0 Y/P with a Net Y/P of 43.5. These numbers would have been significantly higher had he not purposely drilled in I20 punt which only required a 29-yard kick. At kicker is another player who arguably deserved some All-Pro consideration, rookie Tyler Bass. This kid has been on complete fire the past 10 weeks going 42/43 on XPs and 18/19 on FGs with his only miss coming from 61 yards out. I was personally skeptical on Bass coming into the season, but my goodness, this kid is a stud. There is one more player on the Bills’ Special Teams that got an All-Pro vote, Tyler Matakevich. A guru at the position the man nicknamed “Dirty Red” is around the ball carrier on every kick and tossing people around on every return. Bills’ fans know more than most that Special Teams players can have a huge impact on a team and the Bills’ have a ton of great ones.
The Ravens also have one of the better Special Teams units in the NFL. For most of the season Devin Duvernay handled KR while James Proche took care of PR however, in recent weeks Duvernay has taken control of both. Averaging 11.5 Y/PR and 27.5 Y/KR, with a 93-yard return for a TD, Duvernay is a dynamic rookie with open field speed that few can match. Just like the Colts game this will likely effect the Bills’ short kick strategy meaning a lot of touchbacks when the Bills kick off. Punting for the Ravens is the 38-year old veteran Sam Koch who the Ravens have under contract until he is 40. Koch had his lowest Y/P (44.5) in a decade but finished 8th in the NFL with a Net Y/P of 42.8, a difference of just 1.7. Koch rarely allows players to return the ball and when they do, they are averaging just 4.8 Y/R. Last is the best to ever do it, Kicker Justin Tucker. Tucker has a 90.7 FG% in the regular season throughout his career with a career long of 61. As automatic as they come if you see Tucker on the field there is basically no tradition Bills’ fans can do that would make him miss.
EDGE: Bills 👏
Why We Will Lose
The Ravens have steadily improved the entire season and are peaking at the perfect time. Improving their odds of advancing is that the Ravens’ strengths matchup well against the Bills’ weaknesses. On defense the Ravens excel against the pass and have been able to put pressure on every QB they have played in 2020. That pressure should be extra concerning for a Bills’ team that has seen their star QB struggle at holding onto the football, now realize that the Ravens had a combined 25 forced fumbles in the regular season and start panicking. In reality the Ravens only weakness on defense is against the run which is something that they shouldn’t particularly care about when playing a Bills team who has struggled running the ball and should find a more difficult go of things after losing their RB2.
On offense the Ravens continue to be one of the best running teams in history. Whether it be Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, or Lamar Jackson doesn’t matter because whoever has the ball will be able to effectively move it on the ground. This means consistent yardage with the occasional big run sprinkled in. That continuous success ultimately will keep the ball out of the hands of Buffalo’s offense while putting up points for Baltimore which is a typical strategy against a Bills team that has struggled against the run in 2020. Making matters worse is the Bills’ can’t just bail out to stop the run because if they did attempt this Lamar Jackson, the 2019 MVP, has shown the ability to make big plays through the air and will do so against this Bills’ team. The Ravens offense is built to beat a team like Buffalo, as is their defense, which is a recipe for a Baltimore victory.
Why We Will Win
The 2019 Bills lost to the Ravens 24-17. The 2020 Bills are a significantly improved version of that team with an MVP caliber QB. The Bills offense had no answer for the Ravens pressure last season which is a primary reason they went out and got a receiver that could specifically help with handling that scheme. That receiver is your first team All-Pro WR, Stefon Diggs, who has dominated every single player that has tried to guard him this season. You factor him in with Buffalo’s other 3 options at the position and the Bills suddenly have the ability to put up points against a Ravens’ defense that is one of the best in the NFL.
On defense the Bills may not have had the same success in 2020 that they did in 2019 but they have continually improved all season long. This game comes down to the Bills’ ability to contain Lamar Jackson and a healthy Matt Milano makes that slightly easier. Dark horse candidate to have big game is A.J. Epenesa who the Bills coaching staff has surely coached up to not do to much and instead do his 1/11th. And that is just what every single Bills’ player must do, their 1/11th, do that and you won’t stop Lamar Jackson, but you can reduce the damage he inflicts. If Buffalo accomplishes that your Bills will be heading to their first AFC Championship game in nearly 30 years.
Prediction: Bills 27 – Ravens 24
This is going to be a close game whichever way you slice it. On paper the Ravens seem to have the matchups but in reality, the Bills seem to have the ability to win them. Because this will be so close this game likely comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes, inclusive of turnovers. With the way the Bills are playing right now you must trust Josh Allen more than Lamar Jackson to hold onto the ball. At the end of the night though this will be a battle of heavyweights with the last one standing being one game away from Super Bowl Sunday.

Official r/NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

Welcome to the Official NFL Power Rankings! From initial odds stacked against a full season to a successfully completed week 17, please take a second to reflect on these great months of football. We'd like to thank everyone involved with making the unlikely a reality, and also all who read and contribute to these ever improving rankings. 18th try is the charm, right? Discuss! 30/32 reporting

#	Team	Δ	Record	Comment
1.	Chiefs	--	14-2	Somehow, the Chiefs found a way to meaningfully lose in a game the outcome didn't matter in. Willie Gay Jr, Rashod Fenton, and DeAndre Baker all got injured with the first two players having significant roles on the offense when the starters are playing. Baker, who was a major part of the Chiefs' plans in the secondary in 2021, also broke his leg. On the positive sign Chad Henne got his first TD in 6 years and Darwin Thompson had a nice day for himself. The Chiefs now will wait and see who they play from wildcard weekend and will need to bring their A-game in a tough AFC to repeat as champions.
2.	Bills	--	13-3	The Bills starters played the first half of this game, with backups getting the second. They each put up 28 points. Miami put up 26 in the whole game. Talk about an extra shot of confidence heading into the playoffs. A 56 point outing is huge against any team, but Miami came in with the number one scoring defense in football (although it didn’t help that the Dolphins offense couldn’t stay on the field). This is a team that isn’t just winning games, they’re blowing people out. If you’re any other team in the AFC, the Buffalo Bills are just about the last team you wanna see right now. There could be a deep playoff run in store, and for the first time in 30 years, Marv Levy’s words are again relevant: where else would you rather be than right here, right now?
3.	Packers	--	13-3	We may have lost Bakh, but didn't seem to hinder the Packers too much in Chicago. 1 seed is clinched, Davante Adams clinched a share of the franchise receiving TD record, and Rodgers all but clinched his 3rd MVP. The NFC runs through the Frozen Tundra this year.
4.	Saints	--	12-4	The Saints head to the playoffs for another year, with efficiency being the key measure of success for this team. A top 5 defense in every yardage and scoring metric has done its job while the offense has used the ball well to keep the scoreboard ticking over. Season 2020 has so far been a success for the team, but as every Saints fan knows, the bounce of the ball is what matters in seeking the Philosopher's Stone of the Lombardi Trophy.
5.	Seahawks	--	12-4	Might be sounding like a broken record at this point, but maaaaaan this team needs to improve on offense. It's the playoffs, and this team is certainly capable of getting hot and going on an epic postseason run, but it's gotta see improvement on offense. Russ hasn't been the same, throwing 28 touchdowns in the first 8 weeks of the season, opposed to 12 in the final 8. The defense has seen major improvement, able to generate pressure and get to opposing quarterbacks as of late. With weapons on offense that include the duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, a sputtering offense is simply inexcusable. Hopefully the Seahawks can put things together and end the Rams season tis weekend.
6.	Ravens	+1	11-5	404 yards is the fourth most for a single-game, team-wide. Lamar Jackson is also the first QB with two 1000 yard rushing seasons. The team is rolling over bad teams and can run against bad defenses. Defense better get healthy in time for the playoffs, because there's 3 offenses in the playoffs that have already hung 34+ on this team, and another one will definitely be able to cross that threshold. Can Lamar finally win a playoff game? Harbaugh's Ravens are always good on the road...
7.	Buccaneers	+1	11-5	Any talk of a close game was thrown out the window when Atlanta gave up a healthy 21 points in the fourth quarter. Concerns of Tom Brady's arm staying effective late into the season are louder than ever, as he failed to throw for 400 yards for the 17th time this season.
8.	Steelers	-2	12-4	Unfortunately for the valiant, upstart Dolphins, the Steelers decided to send Mason Rudolph out there to the Dawgs. Somehow, in classic 2020 fashion, the Steelers had a chance to send the game into overtime, but fell short. It was a familiar sight for Steelers fans to see that the team can fall way behind and come back regardless of who is at QB. And lose. Or not. Who the hell knows? Playing Cleveland in back to back weeks looks like exactly what the team wanted. But be careful what you wish for...you just might get it.
9.	Titans	--	11-5	On Sunday, the Titans became the first NFL franchise to have two 2,000 rushers (and only franchise with 3 over 1,900) with Derrick Henry's 250 yard performance in the franchise's original city. Every game moving forward will be a question of the offense outscoring a turnstile defense.
10.	Colts	--	11-5	The Colts are in the playoffs, and though a tough trip to Buffalo awaits it's hard not to feel optimistic as a fan. The coupe de grace of this crazy season was the redemption of Jonathan Taylor, a player prematurely written off as a bust after a few weeks. Even Derrick Henry gave props to the player who put the team on his back and carried the Colts to victory on Sunday. After everything this year and amidst the ongoing pandemic, one is reminded is that sports boil down the big challenges in life into discrete, relatively meaningless objectives. We all have points in our lives where people doubt us. With fortune, we're given an opportunity to prove those people wrong. It's just in sports, sometimes you can do that by literally running the doubters into submission. The future is bright, one has to believe.
11.	Browns	--	11-5	After almost two decades, the Browns playoff drought is over. With the first 11 win record since 1994 the Browns will face the Steelers again in a Sunday night Wild Card match up. Playing Pittsburgh in back to back weeks looks like exactly what the team was going to have to do, and the are ready. Go Browns! COVID UPDATE: GODDAMN IT!
12.	Rams	+1	10-6	The Wolf of Ball Street, John Wolford, was a breath of fresh air with his mobility, but the result of any QB controversy might not be the cure to an anemic offense that has failed to score a TD since week 15. It’s the defense that got them to the playoffs, and it will have to be the defense again to win a playoff game. If the offense can get back to earlier season form, the Rams have a chance to make a run.
13.	Dolphins	-1	10-6	The Dolphins are a good, but flawed team, however with the third pick in the draft, they're in a prime situation to fix those flaws in 2021. The year ended poorly, but they finished better than anyone expected for the 2nd straight season, and going forward playoffs should be expected from this team for the next few years. The Dolphins have a lot to look forward to and a lot of reasons to believe that things will work out.
14.	Bears	--	8-8	The Bears' "resurgent, job-saving" offense scored an impressive 16 points. Trubisky went 2-7 with one INT on pass attempts of more than 6 yards; the offense scored one touchdown in five red zone trips; and an Amber Alert went out for Allen Robinson who went missing during the game.
15.	Cardinals	--	8-8	Sure the Cardinals improved in 2020, but the regression really showed in the second half of the season. There will be a lot of questions in the offseason regarding just how they missed the postseason and the blown opportunities. They wouldn't have done much in the postseason anyway and should be asking themselves how to position themselves to be ready next year.
16.	Raiders	--	8-8	In the only meaningless game of the year the Raiders beat the Broncos after going for and converting a 2-point conversion, the same way they lost to the Broncos at the end of last season. The Raiders finish 8-8 this season, bringing the Raiders non-losing season total up to 4 since the 2002-2003 season. As always, there's always next year.
17.	Washington FT	--	7-9	Well, The Washington Football Team is king of trash mountain and while they're NFC EAST champs at 7-9 they don't need to apologize to anybody. If they maintain the level of play they put on the field during their 4 win stretch and 5 out of their final 7 they can play with anybody. Their biggest issue however remains their offense and Alex Smith's lack of mobility. 17-20 points won't get it done against the offensive powerhouses of the league. Despite the still existent flaws, Ron Rivera in one year has done so much to change the culture and bring some respect back to this franchise and who knows what they could accomplish over the course of his tenure. And as a cherry on top, Chase Young came up big again in the most important game of the season cementing his Defensive Rookie of the Year status.
18.	Vikings	--	7-9	Justin Jefferson broke the NFL record for rookie receiving yards, with his final 133-yard game putting an exclamation mark on a year where he ranks first among all WRs in DVOA, second in PFF grade, second in yard per route run and first in yards over expected. A 7-9 finish for Minnesota is undoubtedly disappointing, but Jefferson and the rest of the Vikings' rookie class, together with hope for better injury luck, give Vikings fans plenty of reason to be more optimistic heading into next year.
19.	Chargers	+1	7-9	Facing KC's backups on the grounds of Arrowhead Stadium, the Chargers took their last game of the 2020 season and ran away with it, coming up with their 4th straight win and finishing the season at 7-9. Justin Herbert has now broken too many records to count, and came up just short of the rookie season passing yards record. Very safe to say he's going to win OROY and now has to focus on continuing to improve in the coming seasons. There were about an equal number of bright spots and big problems this season, but something that can be said for sure about this team is that it continues to be very close to dangerous but is still missing the right stuff. Potential moves in coaching, free agency and the draft will attempt to find the answers the Chargers need as they prepare for a playoff push in 2021.
20.	49ers	-1	6-10	Squandering a 10 point lead to lose to the Seahawks puts an end to this tumultuous season for the 49ers. Heading back to the Bay area after injuries and exile defined this season, more changes loom as their Defensive Coordinator takes head coaching interviews.
21.	Patriots	+2	7-9	The 2020 Patriots campaign ends on a hopeful, but uncertain note as we are reminded that sweeping the Jets remains one of life's great pleasures. For 2021, the Patriots are headed into offseason in rebuild mode once again, and seemingly with a new face at QB for the second year in a row. 7-9 is pretty disappointing after recent Patriots' success but with FA losses, opt-outs, Covid scratches and some close ass losses the 2020 Patriots fought hard, wringing every last bit out this roster. Watching the Playoffs without the Patriots is a bummer we pray will be rare.
22.	Giants	+3	6-10	In a season full of highs and lows, most Giants fans can walk away from 2020 feeling better about their HC than they have in a long, long time. That said, they have nobody to blame but themselves for missing out on the playoffs. Giants fans everywhere will take the feeling of beating the Cowboys over a higher draft pick 10 out of 10 times. Now we look forward as the team tries to build up this offense to once again become truly competitive.
23.	Panthers	-1	5-11	The Panthers finally did it: they pulled Teddy Bridgewater. Of course, Coach Rhule said that it was due to an "ankle injury" (though, according to the NFL, teams are required to send a medical update to the media if there is an injury to player, and the Panthers did not do so for Teddy), we finally got to see XFL legend PJ Walker play... And man, was he awful. He ended up throwing 3 INTs, and managed to look even worse than that stat-line. All of that is bundled up in the fact that we're now looking at teams interviewing Joe Brady, our OC, for their HC job and we dropped to #8 in the Draft because of a meaningless win against Washington. This was one of the most frustrating seasons as a Panthers fan, and I only hope that we can continue to #KeepPounding from here.
24.	Cowboys	-3	6-10	If you watch Sunday backwards, the day went good, but not great, for the Dallas Cowboys. After Washington locked up the division, losing the game against the Giants netted them 3 or 4 draft slots. All in all, though, this season is just like that horrible trainwreck of a on-man play that a friend from college put on: they invited you, and you agreed to participate but didn't know what you were getting in to, and then once you showed up you couldn't leave, because you were committed, and now its finally over, and you're just so relieved. Dallas got a good look at their roster, and their depth, and what they could scrounge up odd the street in October at a lot of positions, and hopefully can use that data to make smart decisions in the spring. Finally, and most importantly, why haven't they paid Dak yet? It's been allowed for like 18 hours at the time of writing this!
25.	Falcons	-1	4-12	Hopefully 2021 is the year Blank realizes announcing "Falcons for life" isn't effective in contract negotiations. There are major questions heading into the offseason, but any new coach might find more answers on this roster than realized. Fortunately, Raheem Morris doesn't count. With a top 5 pick for the first time since Matt Ryan was drafted in 2008, there will be room for difference makers on this team even with a subpar cap situation.
26.	Broncos	--	5-11	Time is a flat circle. Week 17, Broncos hosting the Raiders. All comes down to a two-point conversion. The Raiders choked it last year, the world went down a dark path. Perhaps things going opposite this year will lead to a brighter tomorrow? Stay tuned.
27.	Texans	+2	4-12	There's a solid chance this was the last time fans will see JJ Watt take the field for the Texans, and that's just depressing. This season has taken a lot of out everyone, and there doesn't seem to be a hell of a lot to look forward to this offseason as the folks off Kirby Drive will have to compete in a very active HC/GM market, with no guarantee of success. As with all Americans, Texans fans will look to the new year with a glint of hope, however misplaced that may end up being.
28.	Lions	+2	5-11	293 yards and 3 TD's from Stafford, 2 that went to Marvin Jones Jr (and a third that was called back thanks to a controversial call), and 3 sacks on Kirk Cousins. Although the Lions lost the game, the players were having fun. Rookies Quintez Cephus and D'andre Swift both are getting more comfortable in their roles; becoming more sure handed and running powerfully. Will Stafford resign a long term contract? Will Golladay? Will Marvin Jones Jr? Fuck. Whatever the future is for the Detroit Lions, most fans would agree that the franchise is slowly heading into the right direction.
29.	Eagles	-2	4-11-1	Someone once said, "You can't purposefully lose a football game on primetime television" to which Doug Pederson rolled up his Croft & Barrow sleeves and said, "Not with that attitude you can't."
30.	Bengals	-2	4-11-1	In two games against the Ravens the Bengals had a -59 point differential, in 14 games against everyone else they were -54. A humbling end of the season, but it looks like the Bengals will be bringing head coach Zac Taylor back for a third year. The Bengals hope that several assistant coaching changes, upgrades to the offensive line, and a healthy roster will be enough to make the Bengals more competitive in 2021.
31.	Jets	--	2-14	In what was news to ~~coach~~ Mr. Gase and literally nobody else, the season ended with making medicine ball heave Newton look like an MVP again.
32.	Jaguars	--	1-15	Disaster. There simply isn't a more apt word to describe this hellacious season. Occasionally the team would show a glimmer of being a professional sports team, but it'd quickly fade as mistakes and lack of talent piled up. Now the jobs are piled next to the draft picks. Hopefully whoever next is brought in to run the show can start to make things... well, less shit.

2 Round Mock Draft (3.0)

Here is the much awaited 3.0 Mock! Though some QB movement is inevitable, I didn't mock and player trades, just draft capital trades. My analysis for each team is at the bottom.
Round 1
1.01) Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
1.02) Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
1.03) Dolphins - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
1.04) Falcons - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
1.05) Bengals - Penei Sewell, OL, Oregon
1.06) Eagles - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
1.07) 49ers (Trade with Lions)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
1.08) Panthers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
1.09) Broncos - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
1.10) Cowboys - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
1.11) Giants - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
1.12) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
1.13) Chargers - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
1.14) Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
1.15) Patriots - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
1.16) Cardinals - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
1.17) Raiders - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
1.18) Dolphins - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
1.19) Washington - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
1.20) Bears - Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech
1.21) Colts - Samuel Cosmi, OL, Texas
1.22) Titans - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami
1.23) Jets - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
1.24) Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OL, Notre Dame
1.25) Jaguars - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
1.26) Browns - Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa
1.27) Ravens - Creed Humphrey, OL, Oklahoma
1.28) Chargers (Trade with Saints) - Wyatt Davis, OL, Ohio State
Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28
1.29) Packers - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
1.30) Bills - Jalen Mayfield, OL, Michigan
1.31) Chiefs - Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma State
1.32) Buccaneers - Joesph Ossai, DE, Texas
Round 2
2.33) Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
2.34) Jets - Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama
2.35) Falcons - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
2.36) Dolphins - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
2.37) Eagles - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
2.38) Bengals - Carlos Basham Jr., DE, Wake Forest
2.39) Panthers - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
2.40) Broncos - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa
2.41) Lions - Jay Tufele, DT, USC
2.42) Giants - Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
2.43) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
2.44) Cowboys - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
2.45) Jaguars - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
2.46) Patriots - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
2.47) Saints - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28
2.48) Raiders - Jevon Holland, S, Oregon
2.49) Cardinals - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
2.50) Dolphins - Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama
2.51) Washington - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
2.52) Bears - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
2.53) Titans - Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
2.54) Colts - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
2.55) Steelers - Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pitt
2.56) Seahawks - Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee
2.57) Rams - Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC
2.58) Ravens - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
2.59) Browns - Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State
2.60) Saints - Richie Grant, S, UCF
2.61) Packers - Alim Mcneill, DT, NC State
2.62) Bills - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
2.63) Chiefs - Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami
2.64) Buccaneers - Dillion Radunz, OL, NDSU
AFC
Baltimore Ravens
1.27) Ravens - Creed Humphrey, OL, Oklahoma
2.58) Ravens - Joe Tryon, EDGE, Washington
The Ravens have multiple needs this season, but none are as important as DE and Center. Center Matt Skura is still recovering from a significant knee injury where he tore his ACL, MCL and PCL in late November along with a disclosated kneecap and his future is unknown. While the franchise-tagged Matthew Judon registered 9.5 sacks and 33 quarterback hits — both team high, Jaylon Ferguson, a rookie, only finished with with 2.5 sacks and nine quarterback hits.
Cincinnati Bengals
1.05) Bengals - Penei Sewell, OL, Oregon
2.38) Bengals - Carlos Basham Jr., DE, Wake Forest
The most important thing in Cincinnati this season is one thing and one thing alone, collect as many assets to protect and assist Joe Burrow this offseason. To make matters worse, Carl Lawson, AJ Green, and John Ross are free agents and most likely to be somewhere else in 2021. Cincinnati posted the second least sacks in 2020 and desperately needs to add playmakers on the edge.
Cleveland Browns
1.26 CLE - Zaven Collins (LB) - Tulsa
2.59) Browns - Asante Samuel Jr, CB, Florida State
On defense, all three levels need to get better. But at the very least, Myles Garrett is locked in long-term as focal point of the defense and Denzel Ward seem likely to join him when he’s extended. I see the browns hammering the defensive side of the ball in the draft this year with a WR in the mix in the later rounds.
Pittsburgh Steelers
1.24) Steelers - Liam Eichenburg, OL, Notre Dame
2.55) Steelers - Patrick Jones II, EDGE, Pitt
With the retirement of Pouncey looming along with free agency of Villanueva, Steelers desperately need to find cheap options on the OL. Eichenburg provides and elite, cheap fill and can be a franchise player. The question mark for RB is also a big one. Do they resign Connor, find another option like Kenyan Drake, Jerrick Mckinnon, or Chris Carson or draft one.
Buffalo Bills
1.30) Bills - Jalen Mayfield, OL, Michigan
2.62) Bills - Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio State
The Bills are a complete team that doesn’t have many sports for an instant starter. However, they will need to get better in the trenches if they want to compete with the likes of Kansas City and Tampa Bay. Mayfield only played 1 season at Michigan, but the need on the right side of the line in evident. Look for the Bills to also look at DE, LB, CB, or even trade down to a team trying to grab a late first rounder.
Miami Dolphins
1.03) Dolphins - Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU
1.18) Dolphins - Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame
2.36) Dolphins - Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson
2.50) Dolphins - Landon Dickerson, IOL, Alabama
In Tua year two, the Dolphins need to fill out their roster if they want to compete with the Bills. There are multiple needs Miami has, but filling out their OL and giving Tua elite options are the priority.
New England Patriots
1.15) Patriots - Micah Parsons, LB, Penn State
2.46) Patriots - Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue
Offense, Offense, Offense. Patriots need to hammer a rebuild on the offensive side of the draft if they even want to dream about the playoffs again. The Bills and Dolphins are a major threat in the AFC and Newton at QB wasn’t a longterm fix. Moore provides Belichick with an elite pass catcher who can line up all over the field.
New York Jets
1.02) Jets - Zach Wilson, QB, BYU
1.23) Jets - Azeez Ojulari, EDGE, Georgia
2.34) Jets - Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama
If the Jets want to compete next year, they need to address almost every position. Drafting basically BPA at every spot this year, they select a QB replacement, a long athletic edge, and some more depth in the OL.
Houston Texans
#fireeasterby
Indianapolis Colts
1.21) Colts - Samuel Cosmi, OL, Texas
2.54) Colts - Kyle Trask, QB, Florida
Indianapolis has an elite defense and if they can fix the holes on offense they will be a threat in the AFC for years to come. With the retirements of Phillip Rivers and Anthony Constanzo, LT and QB becoming immediate early draft picks or free agent acquisitions and I believe drafting Trask and Sam Cosmi will be good replacements.
Jacksonville Jaguars
1.01) Jaguars - Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson
1.25) Jaguars - Christian Barmore, DT, Alabama
2.33) Jaguars - Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU
2.45) Jaguars - Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn State
The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently in the process of completing their regime change under new head coach Urban Meyer. Once that happens, it will be all about making improvements to the roster this offseason. With Lawrence as a lock, Urban Meyer has to surround his franchise QB with a roster that’ll be competitive.
Tennessee Titans
1.22) Titans - Jaelen Phillips, EDGE, Miami
2.53) Titans - Elijah Moore, WR, Ole Miss
By far, Tennessee’s biggest problem right now is a lack of consistent pass rush, which should have them targeting an edge defender early in this draft. Jaelen Philips fills the need and provides a high-upside EDGE to assist whatever they bring in in free agency.
Denver Broncos
1.09) Broncos - Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech
2.40) Broncos - Daviyon Nixon, DT, Iowa
With the 9th pick, the Broncos should be targeting one of the several talented cornerbacks in this 2021 NFL Draft class. The Broncos brought in former Pro Bowler A.J. Bouye via trade with the Jaguars and he has been on and off the field due to injuries this season. I think Farley is incredibly talented and he fills a need for Vic Fangio's defense.
Defensive line can’t be ignored as a potential concern. They have five free agents-to-be up front, including Shelby Harris, Jurrell Casey and DeMarcus Walker. Not all of them will come back, we suspect. Even with Dre’Mont Jones, DeShawn Williams, McTelvin Agim and maybe Mike Purcell, some depth and insurance would be nice.
Kansas City Chiefs
1.31) Chiefs - Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma State
2.63) Chiefs - Quincy Roche, EDGE, Miami
One thing the Chiefs will need in 2021 is help at the edge rusher position. Right now, Frank Clark and Mike Danna are the only two players currently under contract. They’ll need to find a few more in the draft and undrafted free agency if they don’t re-sign any of their pending free agents.
Las Vegas Raiders
1.17) Raiders - Gregory Rousseau, EDGE, Miami
2.48) Raiders - Jevon Holland, S, Oregon
When it comes to the draft, the Raiders still have plenty of holes to fill, particularly when it comes to the team’s defensive side. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have spent plenty of picks on the defense but have yet to draft a player who looks like he can be All-Pro, or even pro bowl material on defense.
Los Angeles Chargers
1.13) Chargers - Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida
1.28) Chargers (Trade with Saints) - Wyatt Davis, OL, Ohio State
Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28
Now, the Chargers going after Pitts is a decision that has to be made after they figure out what they’re going to do with Hunter Henry. Henry is currently playing on the franchise tag for an AAV of $10.6 million. Before both Travis Kelce and George Kittle signed their huge extensions, Henry was the highest paid tight end based on AAV. The Chargers are looking a having to chose between Henry and defensive end Melvin Ingram to bring back. A cheaper, possibly better option at tight end could be for the taking in the first round of the NFL Draft in Kyle Pitts.
NFC
Chicago Bears
1.20) Bears - Christian Darrisaw, OL, Virginia Tech
2.52) Bears - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC
Matt Nagy desperately needs to overhaul their offense if they want to compete with the Packers in the upcoming years. To start, I believe the biggest needs the Bears must address this offseason is the offensive line and Receiver. If the Bears want to find an adequate replacement for the expected departure of Allen Robinson, they’ll have to strongly consider using their first pick, however in this mock draft I have them assessing OT first.
Detroit Lions
1.12) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama
Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second
2.41) Lions - Jay Tufele, DT, USC
2.43) Lions (Trade with 49ers) - Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia
With the departure of Stafford announced, Lions have a new QB coming to town. Over the next few weeks, the debate will be had regarding whether or not Detroit should trade down, especially since the team only possesses five total picks this year. Dan Campbell is in year 1, and as long as Rodgers is in GB, odds are they will not make the playoffs. Lions have many holes and the logical thing to do is to trade down and gather as much draft capital as possible. Look for WFT, NE, MIA, or IND as other potential trade partners.
The trade I mocked was the exact same as the Buf-Tampa trade that resulted in Josh Allen in Buffalo. Yes, you don’t need to trade 3 firsts to move up in the first round.
Green Bay Packers
1.29) Packers - Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia
2.61) Packers - Alim Mcneill, DT, NC State
Like the other 3 teams that made the Championship Weekend, the Packers have minimal needs. Kevin King was exposed versus the Bucs and I wouldn’t be surprised if they draft a CB with the first round pick. If the Packers can add another monster upfront, it would help them in so many areas. For starters, it would make life easier on their inside linebackers and open up more gaps for the backer to fill in the running game. A player who can get after the quarterback by pushing the pocket would also alleviate some stress on the secondary and free up blockers for the Packers’ edge rushers.
Minnesota Vikings
1.14) Vikings - Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC
With the 14th pick, the Vikings can go many routes, address the OL, draft an edge rusher, or fix the back end of the defense. With Spielman as GM, it is very unlikely that the Vikings will never draft an EDGE rusher in the first round. At 6-4, 315 pounds, he could play either position at the next level. The Vikings must solidify their offensive line around Kirk Cousins, even after spending second-round picks on Ezra Cleveland (2020) and Brian O'Neill (2018) in recent years, and Vera-Tucker could be the long-term answer on the left side of the line. Cousins plays best when his running game is humming, and Vera-Tucker is a great run-blocker.
Dallas Cowboys
1.10) Cowboys - Kwity Paye, DE, Michigan
2.44) Cowboys - Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
Going into the 2021 draft, the Cowboys have multiple holes they need to address. To start they desperately need to address their secondary. With Slater, Sewell, Surtain, and Farley all gone, this is the worst possible scenario for the boys.
Aldon Smith has played well for the Cowboys this season and may have set himself up for a nice payday over the offseason. With Dallas in a less than ideal cap situation, they may choose to let Smith walk and try to replace him in the draft. In this scenario, Paye would make a ton of sense for the team if they end up picking towards the end of the top 10.
New York Giants
1.11) Giants - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
2.42) Giants - Jayson Oweh, EDGE, Penn State
I think that the Giants are an ascending football team, but they need to be more explosive offensively. Waddle e might be the number one WR in the Class and has the size and speed to be the main target for Daniel Jones. One of the more bizarre stats to come out of the 2020 regular season was that the Giants’ top four pressure marks all came from interior defensive linemen. Leonard Williams (62 pressures), Dexter Lawrence (29), Dalvin Tomlinson (28) and B.J. Hill (22) all produced more quarterback pressures than New York’s top mark from an edge defender — Kyler Fackrell with just 19. By drafting an EDGE in the second round, they bring in a dire need.
Philadelphia Eagles
1.06) Eagles - Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama
2.37) Eagles - Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota
The Eagles have massive holes to fill and might have multiple key players from their SB team leaving this offseason. There’s no question that the Eagles need help at cornerback. They came into this season with Darius Slay as their top corner and even though he hasn’t been elite, he’s been the best CB1 they’ve had since Asante Samuel. The problem is that they lined up Avonte Maddox on the other side and Maddox just simply isn’t a good enough starting outside corner. The Eagles have struggled to draft cornerbacks — think back to Sidney Jones and Rasul Douglas in 2017 — so it’s scary to think about them getting this wrong. But Surtain has an NFL pedigree and at 6-1, isn’t the type of undersized corner we’ve seen the Eagles trot out there during the Jim Schwartz era. Surtain is a true first-round pick and one of the best corners in this draft.
Washington Football Team
1.19) Washington - Mac Jones, QB, Alabama
2.51) Washington - Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU
It's no surprise that the Football Team needs a QB, but they most likely need to give up an unbelievable amount of draft capitol if they want a taste at the top 4 QBs in the draft. With the abundance of QB’s in the market this offseason, it won’t be a surprise if they make a run at Matt Stafford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jimmy G, or Matt Ryan if they become available. Washington could bring in one of the elite Receivers in Free Agency, but Marshall at 51 is hard to pass up.
Atlanta Falcons
1.04) Falcons - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State
2.35) Falcons - Najee Harris, RB, Alabama
Atlanta comes into the 2021 Draft in a unique position. They have plenty of talent, but a team full of aging superstars and an abysmal defense brought them to the number 4 pick. Most likely the top 6 will be Lawrence, Sewell and a run on QBs and WRs bringing the Falcons in a unique position. If they decide to draft a QB, they are in perfect position to pick one but I believe they can do many things. With Matt Ryan on the backend of his career and Julio Jones turning 33, ATL will need to do turn the page soon to be relevant again.
Carolina Panthers
1.08) Panthers - Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern
2.39) Panthers - Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri
If Trey Lance falls to 8, Carolina would be happy to pick Lance with the eighth pick. Drafting a quarterback is almost a certainty at this point but if the Panthers take the "aggressive" approach that new general manager Scott Fitterer has talked about, they will likely trade up for either BYU's Zach Wilson or Ohio State's Justin Fields. Instead of a QB, they take Slater. Tackle in particular is a priority with the Panthers likely to move on from left tackle Russell Okung 32, and right tackle Taylor Moton likely to draw interest in free agency that could make him too costly.
The Carolina Panthers are going to need a long-term solution to their middle linebacker spot sooner rather than later and Nick Bolton fills the void left by Luke Kuechly. Nick Bolton is a physical hitter who has the right sort of speed to become a sideline-to-sideline force at the next level.
New Orleans Saints
2.47) Saints - Levi Onwuzurike, DT, Washington
*Chargers trade 2.47, 3.77, and 2022 fifth to Saints for 1.28*
2.60) Saints - Richie Grant, S, UCF
The Saints have many decisions this offseason regarding their elite defensive that puts them in a tough spot. It’s currently uncertain what the New Orleans secondary will look like next season as Janoris Jenkins, PJ Williams, Justin Hardee, and Ken Crawley are all set to be free agents, and adding a top tier talent like Onwuzurike and Grant could help the team for years.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1.32) Buccaneers - Joesph Ossai, DE, Texas
2.64) Buccaneers - Dillion Radunz, OL, NDSU
With it a possibility that Shaq Barrett opts to leave in free agency, the Buccaneers could find themselves looking for a quarterback hunter. Ossai could fit right in with what they like to do on defense and create havoc for that defense. Should he slide to No. 25, Ossai should be ripe for the picking by the Tampa Bay front office.
LT Donovan Smith has been reliable in terms of his durability and availability, but his performance over the last five years has been inconsistent at best. He’s also scheduled to make more than $14 million next season, though none of that money is guaranteed. That means the Bucs could move on from him without any dead money, and considering how tight the team in terms of salary cap space, they could save a ton of money with a younger, cheaper option like Radunz.
Arizona Cardinals
1.16) Cardinals - Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina
2.49) Cardinals - Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida
With the gaping void left in the Arizona Cardinals secondary following the inevitable loss of franchise-cornerback Patrick Peterson, the 2021 NFL Draft offers an opportunity for Arizona to directly replace their isolation-corner with a prospect built in a similar mold. All-Pro safety Budda Baker looks to be one of the few returning members of the Arizona secondary and is in need of a complimenting talent on the opposite side of the hashes.
Los Angeles Rams
2.57) Rams - Chazz Surratt, LB, UNC
Going into the 2021 offseason, the Rams have quite a few question marks among the OL. Whitworth is old and the rest of the OL might be gone this offseason. They violently need to address the OL in the draft and this offseason. The Rams may have their most questions right now at the linebacker position and several key names could be gone by next year. Cory Littleton and Dante Fowler were lost this offseason, Samsom Ebukam will be a free agent next year, and Leonard Floyd was only signed to a one-year contract. Chazz Surratt is a must for the elite Rams D and provides Sean Mcvay with an athletic playmaker.
San Francisco 49ers
1.07) 49ers (Trade with Lions)- Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State
*Lions trade 1.07 for to 49ers for 1.12, 2.43, 2022 Second*
San Francisco has an important offseason in front of them if they want to continue being atop the NFC West. Injuries battered the 49ers this year and it was a disappointing season all around. The 49ers are in salary cap hell next season and needs to do something if they want to resign Trent Williams, Richard Sherman, Soloman Thomas, and Jason Verrett among others.
Seattle Seahawks
2.56) Seahawks - Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee
Russell Wilson did not look comfortable at quarterback as his ecosystem became increasingly fragile this season. The success of the #LetRussCook movement, more or less, died as protection slowly got worse and worse. In the Wild Card game, Seattle's offensive line struggled mightily, allowing its worst pressure rate of the year - a 67 percent clip on all dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus.

Don't Panic: An Analysis of the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A lot of us are having some major sports PTSD right now. Two years in a row, a team that beat the shit out of the Packers in the regular season is the Packers' opponent in the NFC Championship Game. Many wonder if history will repeat itself, and here are a few reasons why I think it won't.
#1: The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not the 2019 San Francisco 49ers
Last year's 49ers were the best team in the league. I know they lost the Super Bowl, but they controlled that game for the majority of its duration, and they easily could have won if a few plays went differently (3rd and 15 being the most obvious). They had the best defense in the league (I know the Patriots were technically #1 last year but they played absolutely nobody and looked worse as the season progressed), and they had an incredibly efficient offense under Shanahan. That defensive line in particular is in my opinion an all-time great unit. It had: Nick Bosa, the defensive rookie of the year; DeForest Buckner, who is 1st-team All-Pro this year and earned 2nd-team All-Pro last year; Arik Armstead, who had 10 sacks over the season; and D.J. Jones, the least-decorated of the group, but a very solid piece who embarrassed Corey Linsley (the best center in football this year) on multiple snaps. That's just in insane group, and they were able to handily beat the Packers' O-Line by just rushing four. The defense had great linebackers behind that line, and one of the best secondaries in the NFL behind the linebackers. They were stacked.
The 2019 49ers were also just 7 points away combined from going 16-0. They lost by a field goal in OT to Seattle in a back-and-forth game, by a field goal on the road at the AFC 1 seed Ravens, and then by 1 point to the Falcons at home (I'm not counting the last fumble TD, which was borne out of a desperation play). 7 points away from being undefeated. And they were banged up vs the Falcons, too. The 2019 49ers were never not in control of a game they played. They were always competitive, even against elite competition. They won a few close games, but with the exception of their December games vs New Orleans and LA, ESPN's win probability meter never had them at significant odds to lose any of these. They were the best team in the league.
The 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not the best team in the league. They're 11-5 and they were swept by the Saints in blowout fashion and lost close games to the Bears, Chiefs, and Rams. They also struggled in several games which they ultimately won: they had a comeback vs the Chargers and were down by 17 at multiple points in their first game at Atlanta. Where the '19 49ers essentially played well against everyone on the schedule, the Buccaneers have struggled down the stretch. They ended up 11-5, but they very easily could be a 10-6 or even 9-7 team. They've shown vulnerability in multiple games, and a few of their losses were pretty ugly.
This brings me to my next point:
#2: Green Bay is a lot better than teams that have had success vs the Buccaneers this year
Green Bay got whooped by Tampa in week 6, but it remains the lone blowout loss the Packers have suffered in 2020. The Packers' other two losses this year were at Indianapolis and at home vs Minnesota. Both were very winnable games, and came down to one score. Given the broader context of the season, the Tampa game seems like an outlier more than anything. And last year, Green Bay suffered two blowout losses (prior to the third in the playoffs): at SF and at LAC.
To show how much of an outlier the Tampa game was, here's a DVOA stats comparison. I personally find DVOA a bit flawed in that it doesn't really account for how much teams can improve over the course of a season, but it's popular, so here:
Counting this week, Green Bay played 6 of the top 10 defenses by DVOA in the NFL this year, over 7 games. At New Orleans (#2), vs LAR (#4), at TB (#5), at SF (#6), at IND (#7), and then home and away vs Chicago (#8).
Their stats vs Tampa were: 10 points, 201 yards, 3.3 yards per play. Pretty ugly
Their stats in the other 6 games were, on average: 35 points, 389 yards, 6.5 yards per play. !!!
Minus the Tampa game, Green Bay has actually performed better than their season averages against top ten defenses. And it's not like Tampa was the best of the bunch! They were #5 and this^ includes two games against teams that ranked higher than them.
Green Bay (the #1 offense by DVOA) can compete against anybody. I think Tampa caught them on an off day, on the road, in the sun. And don't forget that Green Bay was up by 10 before the pick six and subsequent tipped-int. The Packers were wrecking the Buccaneers' gameplan until they started blitzing their middle linebackers off the edge and Rodgers got rattled and it was downhill from there. I don't think that'll happen twice, and the Packers' record against quality opponents reflects that.
But the Buccaneers have struggled against opponents of lesser quality than Green Bay. In some cases, far lesser quality. Here are a few statlines they've allowed:
vs KC (#2 offense by DVOA): 27 points, 543 yards, 7.5 yards per play
vs LAR (#10 offense by DVOA): 27 points, 413 yards, 5.8 yards per play
vs Carolina (#17 offense by DVOA): 17 points, 427 yards, 6.0 yards per play (they forced 4 turnovers this game, but it goes without saying that GB can't turn the ball over vs Tampa and expect to win)
2 games vs Falcons (#21 offense by DVOA): 27 points, 377 yards per game, 5.6 yards per play
3 games vs Saints (#7 offense by DVOA): 31 points per game, 328 yards per game, 4.9 yards per play
at WFT (#32 offense by DVOA, admittedly with Heinicke in this game): 23 points, 375 yards, 5.4 yards per play
vs LAC (#15 offense by DVOA): 31 points, 324 yards, 6.5 yards per play
Teams do move the ball against this defense. In some cases, they do it quite a lot. I don't know that it'll be realistic for Green Bay to hang 543 yards on Tampa, but hey, someone did it this year. And Green Bay just hung 484 on a Rams defense that hadn't allowed more than 390 all year.
The Rams and Falcons games really stick out to me, in particular. Tampa gave up 413 yards to the same Rams offense Green Bay held to 244 (admittedly without Kupp), and they gave up 377 on average in their two games against a Falcons team GB held to 327. These aren't crazy talented offenses (like GB is) and yet they put up solid numbers against the Buccaneers. If Green Bay has done their homework, and figured out an answer to Tampa's blitzing, I don't see any reason why they can't have the kind of success against the Buccaneers these teams did.

But what about the defense?
Okay, so remember what I said about DVOA? I think it's unfair to units that improve down the stretch of the season, and I think Green Bay's defense is definitely one of those units. Football Outsiders has GB ranked #17 on defense and I think that's kind of bullshit. The #17 defense doesn't hold Tennessee (#4 offense) to 14 points. The #17 defense doesn't allow an average of 287 yards, 16 points, and 4.8 yards per play down the stretch to three straight playoff teams in a row in Tennessee, Chicago, and LA (#4, #25, and #10 ranked offenses, respectively).
I'm gonna go with EPA on this one. EPA has Green Bay ranked #5 on defense since week 9 and I think that's reflective of how well this team has played down the stretch. Tampa's defense is #12 by this metric since week 9, by the way.
Anyway, #3: Green Bay actually has a defense to match Tampa's, and even exceed it depending on where you look
Green Bay's defense is really good this year. They were pretty average early in the season, but they've turned into an elite unit down the stretch. They've given up more than 400 yards once all year at Indianapolis, which is more than the Buccaneers can say, and they've performed similarly and better in cases against common opponents.
I think GB has the best secondary in football right now. Jaire is PFF's #1 CB, and Amos and Savage are both in its top 10 for safety rankings. King is serviceable, and guys like Sullivan and Redmond get the job done when called upon.
Z's been in PFF's top 15 edge rushers all year, and Gary made headlines this week because he's posted PFF grades above 90 against Tennessee and Chicago recently, and he posted above 80 against the Rams. That puts him among the best in the league right now. Clark just had a sack and a half against the Rams this week, and Preston's looked good recently, with some pressures and a few batted balls. This defensive front is scary. This defense is scary.
That brings me to my last point.
#4: It's different this time around.
This time around, it's at home. This time around, Green Bay's got a full season of Tampa's defense on tape. They can see how teams have racked up yards against them, and they can plan for the blitz looks Tampa hurled at them out of nowhere in week 6.
This time, it'll be below freezing outside as a Florida team travels a thousand miles north to play in the snow for the first time in many of their players' careers. They're gonna be tested by cold wind and sleet, and it'll be loud, too. There are gonna be thousands of fans in attendance, cheering the Packers on.
Tampa Bay is damn good. Tom Brady is damn good. His receivers are damn good. His running back is damn good. His offensive line (increasingly injured as it may be) is damn good. But Green Bay's offense is better.
Tampa Bay's defense is really good. But I think Green Bay's is better. If any secondary can match up against Godwin/Evans/Brown, it's Amos/Savage/Jaire. If any front four can get pressure on Brady, it's Z/Clark/Preston/Gary.
I think Green Bay's got this. I sure hope they do.

(Spoiler extended) Every reference and allusion to A Dance With Dragons on NotABlog before completion.

The only thing I can conclude from this thread is that, if TWOW does not get published soon, some of us will go mad.

Modesty Lannister, 25/3/2015
Some time ago I wrote a post recollecting Every reference and allusion to the Winds of Winter on NotABlog. I was inspired to write this post because George had just provided a juicy update on The Winds of Winter (the last one to date), and many people were reminded of that pre-ADWD period, the few (not-so-few actually) months before the publication date for ADWD was announced, during which GRRM updated his fans on his work very often.
So here is a list of every allusion, hidden or plain reference to A Dance With Dragons GRRM's ever made on his Not a Blog before he announced completion:
Keep in mind that this is only the references he made IN HIS POSTS. I am aware he gave other information on the book in comments, interviews, but I'm not taking these into account.
((And yeah if anyone wants a list of every reference to ADWD on NaB EVER, they're welcome to compile it themselves, but I doubt anyone's mad enough.))
So here we go :
2006
" I have a big chunk of a new Dunk & Egg novella that I should be able to finish with a good solid week of work... and then I've got some dragons waiting for a dance. We'll see how all that goes. " - year's end - 3/1/2006
"While our roof is being torn off in Santa Fe, I plan to be off walking the Wall with Jon Snow, or visiting Dany and her dragons in Meereen. Or so I hope...." - back from the north - 21/1/2006
" So another NFL season is now done, which means that Sunday becomes a work day for me once again. That should please everyone waiting for A DANCE WITH DRAGONS. " - Super Bowl XL - 5/2/2006
"(And no, I am NOT going to forget about A DANCE WITH DRAGONS. That's still my number one priority, and will remain so until it's done)." - Remember the Hugo - 7/3/2006
Pretty substantial update on ADWD. George talks about his current work on some Jon chapters especially - this, that, and the other thing - 28/3/2006
" Oh, and I suppose you want to know how the DANCE is coming? Work continues. I finished the revisions on the Jon Snow chapters that I was talking about last month, and moved on to Tyrion for a while, but just now I am working on a new viewpoint character, and a chapter set in steamy harbor of Old Volantis. Where I shall be returning, first thing tomorrow." George is working on the Merchant's Man, Quentyn Martell's first chapter in Dance. - Home Alone - 13/5/2006
"Meanwhile, for those who do read this page... yes, I am still working on A DANCE WITH DRAGONS, and yes, I still hope to deliver it this fall, or by the end of the year at the latest. " Ouch... - Belated Update - 30/5/2006
" I'm home again and it is time to get going on the novel once more. I have less than a month until worldcon, and I would like to get a big chunk of DANCE done before I take off for Anaheim. " - San Diego - 26/7/2006
"This will no doubt upset all those readers who want me to stay home and write, write, write, but it looks as though I will be taking to the road again in the fall. " - On the Road Again - 9/8/2006
GRRM on why last month was a generally bad month for writing - Off to Worldcon - 17/8/2006
" I have half a dozen different projects on my plate, but the big one is A DANCE WITH DRAGONS, and I am going to be pushing hard on that in the weeks and months to come, in hopes of wrapping it up by the end of the year. " Ouch... - Home for the Holidays - 17/10/2006
" Right now I'm trying to finish A DANCE WITH DRAGONS, [...] " - PayPal Thinks I'm a Terrorist - 5/11/2006
George did not, in fact, finish Dance before the end of the year. - Good News and Bad News - 5/12/2006
" When A FEAST FOR CROWS came out, I realized that something close to half the book had already been out there in one form or another [...] I am not going to do that with DANCE. - Wild Cards Returns! - 11/12/2006
2007
" Lest anyone have a heart attack, let me hasten to add that this [computer crash] has NOT affected A DANCE WITH DRAGONS or any of my other work-in-progress. " - Gleep - 5/1/2007
George had a very productive day on ADWD and explains his writing routine in days such as this one - a good day's dancing - 21/4/2007
"Unfortunately, the last two days have been less productive, at least for DANCE." - this and that and t'other thing - 27/4/2007
George will be doing a reading from ADWD on Second Life come thursday. - My Second Life - 29/5/2007
Update on ADWD, and GRRM contemplates cancelling an appearance at worldcon in Japan in order to be able to finish the book. - The Only Living Boy in New York - 25/6/2007
"I'm working on DANCE, as I've reported, but I have other projects too, and that's going to continue to be true for a long, long time." - a new deal for WILD CARDS - 28/6/2007
George reads the prologue of ADWD at InConjunction in Indianapolis, and shares the writing process of this particular chapter. - Back from Indianapolis - 11/7/2007
After a revision, the prologue is now one page shorter but much stronger - Busy Week - 17/7/2007
" I am, however, getting bloody sick of all the off-topic comments, and the trolls who use any LJ post of mine, regardless of subject, as another excuse to slam me about DANCE being late. " - Ice & Fire Miniatures - 13/8/2007
"Yes, yes, I'm still working on A DANCE WITH DRAGONS." - A Dance With Dragons - 29/8/2007
" Yeah, yeah, I know. I made the logical, adult, sensible decision, and stayed home to work on A DANCE WITH DRAGONS and my myriad other projects. " - Missing Worldcon - 1/9/2007
" DANCE WITH DRAGONS? Yes, working on that too. Lately it's been Tyrion and more Tyrion. When I finish these three chapters, I will need to double back and pick up some of the other POVs lest my devious dwarf get too far ahead. " - Highs and Lows - 22/10/2007
" And when I read the prologue of A DANCE WITH DRAGONS [at WFC], I liked it a lot better than the earlier version I read at a couple cons last summer." - Home from WFC - 16/11/2007
" Finished a Tyrion chapter yesterday, one I've been struggling with for months. " + Update on recent progress concerning Tyrion's chapters in Dance - This, That, and t'Other Thing - 12/12/2007
New Year's post (ADWD wasn't announced in 2007 after all...) - Goodbye,2007 - 31/12/2007
2008
"I've sent a new sample chapter from A DANCE WITH DRAGONS and an update on the current status of the book to my webmaster.[...] (And no, the book's not done. Didn't I just say that in yesterday's post?) " - Updates Coming - 1/1/2008
" It's been a busy few weeks for DANCE. I have been working on a Dany chapter and a Bran chapter. (The Bran chapters remain incredibly hard to write, for what it's worth, and this one is no different). " - Another Month Rushes By - 27/1/2008
"... I am pleased to be able to announce that they have just signed up artist Marc Fishman to illustrate their deluxe limited edition of A DANCE WITH DRAGONS. " - And Speaking of Subterranean - 5/3/2008
George finishes a Bran chapter he's been struggling with for six years (my guess would be Bran III in ADWD) - One More Chapter Done - 15/3/2008
" The issue [of Bantam's new promotional magazine, SpectraPULSE] will include a new, never-before-seen chapter from A DANCE WITH DRAGONS." - Comicon Giveaway - 17/3/2008
"If I can deliver the book before the end of June, you'll see these [new covers] in your favorite bookstore sometime this fall. If I can't, well... you'll still see them eventually, I hope." - Dance Gets Covered - 17/3/2008
" Of course, I need to finish A DANCE WITH DRAGONS before I leave, or else my publishers will hunt me down and kill me. " - Home Again - 13/4/2008
" One day at a time. One page at a time. One word at a time. June is coming up too fast." Sounds similar? - Better - 10/5/2008
"I am getting a lot done. Finished an Arya chapter yesterday, and a Sansa chapter the day before. [...] One chapter at a time, one page at a time, one sentence at a time. " General progress on ADWD, and here, George is probably writing the Alayne I chapter that was (much) later released as a sample for TWOW. He also goes on to explain that portions of the chapters he finished have been written years ago, so he hasn't been writing one chapter per day. - Home alone - 23/5/2008
"Meanwhile, I'm still here, still holding down the fort, working on DANCE, on Vance, on WARRIORS, on WILD CARDS." - Parris Off to Ireland - 9/6/2008
"This is the major event for fans of A SONG OF ICE AND FIRE. I will be talking about the series, reading a bit from A DANCE WITH DRAGONS [...]" - Coming to Portugal - 16/6/2008
"No, I didn't finish the novel, though not for want of trying. Nothing to be done about that but push on when I return." - Made It to Europe - 25/6/2008
"There's been far too much off-topic commentary of late, however. I am perfectly aware that A DANCE WITH DRAGONS is late. There's no need to remind me, thanks, I have plenty of editors and agents and publishers to do that." - A Gentle Reminder - 19/9/2008
"In view of what's happening right now, however, I find a need to say a word or three, even if it means taking a few hours off from DANCE WITH DRAGONS [...] " - Beneath Contempt - 9/10/2008
"Purchasers will also acquire the rights to buy the same number of Subterranean's limited edition of A DANCE WITH DRAGONS, somewhere down the road." - Only 30 Copies Left - 11/10/2008
" (And no, they did NOT take my computers, so the hard drive where A DANCE WITH DRAGONS lives is still there, and safe, and I haven't lost any work. [...] )" Burglars break into George's office! - Monday Morning Blues - 27/10/2008
"Now all I need to do is wrap up WARRIORS and SUICIDE KINGS and... yes... A DANCE WITH DRAGONS, and maybe I'll be able to take a week off." - Vance Book Delivered - 8/12/2008
" Damn. If only I'd finished DANCE. I might be able to afford it [a spaceship miniature]." - Hey, Santa - 11/12/2008
2009
" Alas, this does not mean my back is monkeyless. Couple more still sitting up there, including King Kong, the dragon monkey. But you guys know about him." - One Monkey Off My Back - 17/2/2009
"No, it's not done. [...] I made a lot of progress on the book in the first half of 2008.[...] I am trying to finish the book by June. I think I can do that." ADWD update - A Dance With Dragons - 19/2/2009
GRRM addresses the people who hate his other projects and think he should only focus on Dance 24/7 instead of "wasting time" on other things like football. - To My Detractors - 19/2/2009
" I am still pounding my head against that bloody keyboard daily. Today it was in service of... ah, no, you're not supposed to know about that POV character yet." A general thank you to the overflow of support comments regarding George's previous post - Thanks - 20/2/2009
"(Oh, by the way, Marc Fishman is already hard at work on the artwork for the Subterranean limited edition of A DANCE WITH DRAGONS. [...] )" - And Speaking of Limited Editions - 22/2/2009
"(I wasn't going to comment anymore about DANCE, deadlines, and lateness, but a friend sent me this link, and I couldn't resist. [...])" - I Know Just How You Feel, Pat - 26/2/2009
"Me, I'm going back to DANCE. Maybe I can even finish that bloody Tyrion chapter today..." - The Calendars Are Signed - 12/3/2009
"(It's snowing, too)." Not sure if this one counts, but as you'll see below, George has been known to use the "it's snowing" prhasing to mean that he's working hard on Dance. - Tax Time - 27/3/2009
"The days and weeks and months seem to go by so quickly now... and the pages come so slowly..." - Random Thoughts at Midnight - 28/3/2009
George has found a partner to finish the series after his death !!! - A Partner for the Dance - 1/4/2009
Just kidding, it's an April Fool's. - Well, Not Really - 2/4/2009
"Before anyone has a heart attack... I write with WordStar on a DOS computer that is completely separate from the Windows machine I use for email. It doesn't even have Windows, or any internet connection. So A DANCE WITH DRAGONS and my other work is safe." - George has a "computer catastrophe" - I Hate Computers - 15/4/2009
"Much improved these last two days. I've even been writing well." - feeling feisty - 17/5/2009
" Now if I can only slash through the Meereenese knot that I've been worrying at since 2005, I may actually start to get excited. " George has just had the most productive period on Dance in a long time. - Guarded Optimism - 22/6/2009
"Parris returns to Ireland, and I head home to the cats, the green chile, and A DANCE WITH DRAGONS." - Farewell to Finland - 15/7/2009
"I'm hoping to complete a few more chapters for DANCE before taking off. Still tugging, slashing, and cursing that Meereenese knot." - Home Again - 17/7/2009
"My reading is at 5pm tomorrow. Will probably read a chapter from DANCE, haven't decided which one yet." - Bubonicon - 27/8/2009
ADWD sorta-update - Dancing - 3/9/2009
"A DANCE WITH DRAGONS: I took a good hard swack at the Meereenese knot. The sword bounced off and cut my nose off. Bugger." This is probably a reference to Tyrion, meaning he's at this moment working on his last chapters in ADWD, or even his first in TWOW - Jots and Niggles - 9/9/2009
"Finishing the chapter felt good. Especially since it also completed that character's arc for the book. Admittedly, she has only two chapters in DANCE, so I am not sending up any flares." George is talking about either Cersei, or Arya in this post. - A Smidge of Progress - 11/9/2009
ADWD is now 1100 MS pages long, and longer than AGOT and AFFC. - Dance,Dance, Dance - 6/10/2009
" [...] I'll be reading a chapter from A DANCE WITH DRAGONS. " - See You In Fargo - 14/10/2009
2010
"I meant to post yesterday on the weekend's games, but got busy writing instead, and finished a Tyrion chapter that I've been struggling with for six months. Nibbling away at that knot. We'll see if the finished chapter holds up to reread and polish today." - Adventures in 2010 - 5/1/2010
"(Yes, I know. King Kong is still perched up on my shoulders. He was a king in his world, but I'll teach him fear)." - Another Monkey Off My Back - 13/1/2010
"Snowing like hell in Santa Fe today. [...] The good news: finished a chapter today. The bad news: it's one I've finished at least four times before. This time, though, I think I finally got it right. We'll see. Still whacking at the Meereenese knot. [...] " - Dancing - 28/1/2010
" 'nuff said. " - A Good Day, With Snow - 29/1/2010
" Jeez, guys. Calm down. This is why I hate to do updates. I say I have good day, and immediately I have a hundred people deciding this means that DANCE is finished. " Seems like nothing's changed ten years later ! - No, No, No - 30/1/2010
" I have indeed finished that Jon Snow chapter, and I think it doesn't suck. That doesn't mean the book is done. Still more to write. Just sayin'" - Don't Go Wiggy On Me Now - 31/1/2010
"[...] I'm floating off the Isle of Cedars, or racing across the sands of Dorne. Warm places, both of them, with nary a flake to be seen. But I'd better not change horses. If I keep on keeping on, I should finish one of those chapters this week. Maybe both." - Snowing Again in Santa Fe- 3/2/2010
" Spent the day in the rainwood. 1205 pages. More to come. DANCE has now passed A CLASH OF KINGS to become the second longest volume in the series, though still three hundred pages shorter than the monster that was A STORM WITH SWORDS." George is writing Arianne II, which was pushed back into TWOW and was later released as a sample chapter - Not Done Yet - 8/2/2010
" But today was a good, productive day. Only problem is that the chapter I finished just now is going to require that I go back and rewrite one of the chapters I finished last week. Minor stuff, though. Shouldn't take more than a day. (Famous last words, I know)." - Not Done Yet - 14/2/2010
"But I've left the Isle of Cedars behind, at least. 1261 pages and counting. [...] Anyway, there we are. Back to the grindstone tomorrow." GRRM also elaborates on how the timeline of ADWD is "a bitch and a half". - Not Done Yet - 15/2/2010
"Last but not least, there's Meereen. Can I just drop a hydrogen bomb on the damn place?" - Wolves in the Night - 19/2/2010
"I'll be doing a Q&A, several signing sessions, and maybe a reading from A DANCE WITH DRAGONS." - Odds and Ends and Snow - 21/2/2010
" ... may be fraying, just a little. But don't quote me on that. " - The Meereenese Knot - 26/2/2010
" I'll be here writing, while David and Dan will be out in the center of the storm, writing the scripts and supervising pre-production. On other fronts, I hit page 1311 yesterday. No, not done yet. For some reason, got nothing written today." Game of Thrones is official. - The Green Light - 2/3/2010
"[Talking about his podcasts] I imagine I will be doing more of these when DANCE WITH DRAGONS comes out." - A Blast From the Past - 5/3/2010
"I'm going back to the DANCE. I need to kill someone. " - Grey Days - 18/3/2010
"In addition to the on-going work on DANCE, I am also trying to wrap up FORT FREAK, volume twenty-one in the Wild Cards series, and will soon need to gear up to write my season one script for HBO." - Odds and Ends - 23/3/2010
"All I have to do now is write my script for the HBO series,[...] write up my version of the last Suvudu cage match so Jaime doesn't lose to Rand al'Thor, complete A DANCE WITH DRAGONS,[...] - The Taxman Cometh - 7/4/2010
"(P.S. Had a good day writing today. Half the day on the book, half the day on the script. That's something I NEVER do. But today everything seemed to click. Taxes are done too)." - That Toddling Town - 15/4/2010
"this project will NOT take any writing time away from A DANCE WITH DRAGONS or subsequent Ice & Fire novels, even if it runs for ten years " - Homecoming - 20/4/2010
"On other fronts, I am writing on DANCE WITH DRAGONS [...] " - Coming Soon to a Theater Near You - 27/4/2010
"Hear me talk with Mike & Mike (no, not Greenberg and Golic) about WARRIORS, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS, and the HBO series. " - Can't Shut Me Up - 28/4/2010
"Other monkeys are still frolicking up there, including Kong. He was a king in his world, but we'll teach him fear... " - May Day - 1/5/2010
"Monkey front. Whacking at King Kong, making progress, but not as fast or easy as I like. " - More Odds, More Ends - 7/5/2010
"As for me... there are still a few more monkeys to wrestle into submission. Including Kong. " - Freaky Monkey Bites the Dust - 24/5/2010
"Meanwhile, I've been wrestling with Kong. For more than a week I've been pounding on the epilogue, but still can't get it to gel. [...]" - Stuff and Nonsense - 16/6/2010
"I am dancing, boys and girls, I'm dancing as fast as I can. But some days it does feel as if I am dancing in circles. " George decides to move two Arianne chapters in TWOW. - Dancing In Circles - 27/6/2010
"I just flipped over the calendar from June to July (okay, I'm a little late). And what do I find staring at me? A huge gorilla. " - A Good Omen??? - 2/7/2010
"I'll be reading a chapter from A DANCE WITH DRAGONS, [...]" - Clarion Call - 3/7/2010
" No, no, not THAT long wait, sorry... [...] And for that other long wait... I'm working on it, I'm working on it. " - The Long Wait Is Over!!! - 14/7/2010
"Snowing heavily in Santa Fe, however, and I've been on a bit of a roll. I'll get to all that other stuff when I can. Kong comes first. [...] Off I go to shovel Snow. " - Snowbound - 21/7/2010
"And here I sit at my computer, still shoveling Snow. And snow. The snow won't stop. The squids don't like it much. sigh... I'm missing all the fun, just to make more fun for you guys." - The Only Living Boy in New York - 25/7/2010
"Finally, might mention that I finished a chapter of the DANCE today. I had one last chapter about this particular character -- I will call him Fred -- to finish, and then I am done with him for the book. " - A Few Odds, Some Ends - 30/7/2010
"The good news is that I seem to have written more than a hundred pages of THE WINDS OF WINTER already. " George moves the Forsaken from ADWD to TWOW. - Dancing - 31/7/2010
"Still have that final Fred chapter to finish. Sometimes it's good to change gears, though, so I did that today, and completed the last Barney chapter." - Dancing - 1/8/2010
"I actually had a very good day today, writing about a character who wasn't originally supposed to be a POV, but has turned out to be sharpest sword I've got for slicing through the Meereenese knot. One page at a time. One sentence at a time. One word at a time. " - August - 4/8/2010
"Another chapter done. And another character. This wraps up Yogi for the book. The Meereenese knot is hanging by a thread. One more good slash and it may finally part. " - Dancing - 7/8/2010
"And, of course, I have this book to finish. " Martin cancels his trip to New York City Comicon. - Sorry, New York - 8/8/2010
"And as long as I was swapping out samples, I rotated the excerpt on the Ice & Fire sample page as well, replacing the first Tyrion chapter from DANCE with the first Jon Snow. Enjoy the reads. " - Sample, Sample - 11/8/2010
"11:00 am reading from A DANCE WITH DRAGONS " - Aussiecon IV - 19/8/2010
" No, not Kong. Sorry. " - Another monkey Off My Back - 30/9/2010
" I'll be reading a chapter from DANCE at the FFG event too. " - One Down - 11/11/2010
" And tomorrow, back in Westeros. " - 16/11/2010
" Meanwhile, in Westeros, I am wrestling with krakens. " - G-Men - 20/11/2010
" It's snowing. On Jon. On the krakens. On me. We all slog onward. Finished a chapter a few days ago. Revised another. Then re-revised it. The days go too fast, the work too slowly. But onward. " - Snow - 16/12/2010
2011
" Parris and my docs agree, no more twelve-hour days for a while. So posts here may be less frequent than before. Kong comes first. " - Home Again - 11/1/2011
"And Ty and Daniel are already halfway done with the second book [about vomit zombies], which they write on Ty's day off. I have warned him that if they finish that before I finish DANCE, I'll have to kill them. " - Zombies in Space - 26/1/2011
" Must run now. Kong is calling. " - Some Odds, Some Ends - 11/2/2011
"Wrestling with a pair of krakens. One almost subdued, t'other still writhing and twisting and slapping me alongside the head with her tenatcles. After them, I've got a wolf to face." - Snowstorm on Skull Island - 15/2/2011
"And now we return you to your regularly scheduled programming, and me to Skull Island, where Kong is staggering a little." - The Social Media - 17/2/2011
"And now we’ve off for a six-month Honeymoon trip around the world. See you when we get back. (no, no, no, just kidding. GRRM will be honeymooning on Skull Island, I promise) " - Big, Big, BIG News - 17/2/2011
" And on other fronts... it's still snowing on Skull Island, but one of the krakens is done and t'other is down to the last tentacle. Closer and closer... inch by inch, word by word, step by step... " - The Latest HBO Preview - 27/2/2011
" No. Sorry. Not done yet. I'm close, though. [...] The end is in sight, at long long last, and we're close enough so that my editors and publishers at Bantam Spectra have set an actual publication date." ADWD now has an official publication date. - DRAGON TIME - 3/3/2011
" And if the DANCE announcement wasn't enough for you (greedy bastards!), there's a brand new HBO trailer just out." - EW Exclusive - 3/3/2011
" My friends at Harper Collins Voyager have confirmed that the British edition of A DANCE WITH DRAGONS will also be released on July 12 of this year, simultaneously with the American edition. " - Good News for Old Blighty - 4/3/2011
" And, yes, yes, we are doing all we can to make sure it is Roy Dotrice who will record the audiobook for A DANCE WITH DRAGONS. " - Roy Sets a Record - 11/3/2011
" As of this morning, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS is thirty (manuscript) pages longer than A STORM OF SWORDS. And. Not. Done. Yet. " - He's STILL a king in his world - 12/3/2011
" I do my best, but Kong is a mighty foe. Back to Skull Island." - Ye Old Tie-In - 15/3/2011
" Bantam has informed me that world record holder Roy Dotrice has been signed to read the audiobook of A DANCE WITH DRAGONS. " - You Asked For It - 24/3/2011
" Two more [short] chapters done. More to come. Kong grows bigger and bigger. Past 1600 pp in manuscript now. Oy. Certainly the biggest monkey ever to climb on my back." - KONG - 27/3/2011
"I am writing as fast as I can. Finished a Meereen chapter yesterday, hope to finish another one today" - Watch the Skies! - 30/3/2011
" I've been too busy working on these last few chapters of DANCE to follow the progress of this season's Suvudu cage matches much " - 30/3/2011
" NOT a casting. NOT about the DANCE. NOT about the show. Just a bit of geeky fun. " - 30/3/2011
Bantam to split ADWD into five. - Bantam To Split DANCE Into Five - 1/4/2011
" More a little later. I have to get back to Kong. " - Tonight's the Night! - 17/4/2011
KONG IS DEAD !!! - twas beauty... - 27/4/2011
Of course, I probably missed a few of these little references, but I'm definitely not going to go through all these posts again just to check.

First things first: retches Fuck that was horrible... At least now I've seen every goddamned blog post he's written... But what did it cost?
Now the data:
Number of references by year:

Year:	Number of references:
2006	14
2007	15
2008	18
2009	22
2010	45 (!)
2011 (up to April)	21

Number of references every quadrimester:

Months:	Number of references:
January - April 2006	5
May - August 2006	5
September - December 2006	4
January - April 2007	3
May - August 2007	7
September - December 2007	5
January - April 2008	7
May - August 2008	5
September - December 2008	6
January - April 2009	12
May - August 2009	5
September - December 2009	5
January - April 2010	22
May - August 2010	18
September - December 2010	5
January - April 2011	21

So yeah, that's a pretty huge contrast with TWOW. I previously counted that George made 10 (add to that one or two more since 2020 wasn't over yet when the list was drawn up) TWOW references last year, which is the most he's ever made, but even that is below the lowest number of ADWD references he has made in a year. However, it's understandable: Fans have been waiting for now almost ten years for the damn book, and everytime George opens his mouth and says either "winds" or "winter", everyone gets mad and thinks it'll be released soon (me included, there's no point in denying it).
In general, GRRM also writes posts less often than he did ten years ago: the only few times he didn't post for a long period of time was because he was travelling, or at hospital, or because of some other thing that prevented him from blogging. Nowadays, especially of late, there are repeated periods of 7+ days without any blog post (He lost many friends lately, so that's certainly the main reason, but still).
It should be noted that GRRM was far less shy about giving specifics regarding progress on ADWD than he is now for TWOW. All alog the writing process of ADWD, he often stated which POVs he was working on, if he pushes chapters into the next book, how many chapters he's recently finished, and even went several times as far as giving a manuscript pages count (something that'll never happen for Winds, I'm afraid). Nowadays, the mere mentions of The Winds of Winter in a blog post is considered a benediction, for reasons explained above.
u/Words_are_TWOW also made an interesting table recollecting the partials GRRM mentioned sending to his publishers in his ADWD Post-Mortem.

Date	Pages	Number of ADWD references since last partial	GRRM Self Described Writing Speed
Jan 2006	542	None	Dealing with book split
Oct 2007	472	25	More rewriting than writing
March 2008	596	6	Good Spell
May 2008	684	5	Good Spell
Dec 2008	774	8	Good Spell
Sept 2009	998	19	Slow and Steady
Jan 2010	1038	5	Slow and Steady
June 2010	1028	25	Picking up steam again
August 2010	1332	9	Picking up steam again
Dec 2010	1412	10	Picking up steam again
March 2011	1571	8	Picking up steam again
May 2011	1512	14 (before completion announcement only)	Finished and announces publish date

So can we conclude from this list that the current situation is similar to the 10 or so months period before ADWD was announced?
Well, some have said that the wording in George's last update were also used frequently shortly before ADWD was completed. But the phrase "one page at a time, one sentence at a time, one word at a time" was also used long before, in 2008 for example.
However we can also see that George wrote 300+ pages for ADWD between June and August 2010, and we can plainly see that by the number of references he did in the first half of that year: he was apparently making great progress, and couldn't stop talking about it. Now comparatively, in 2020, George has made more substantial TWOW updates than ever before, and some of them even (somewhat?) bear resemblance to that of ADWD ( "Finished a Meereen chapter yesterday, hope to finish another one today" and "Three more chapters completed this past week. And good progress on several more.").
Personally, I want to believe that we are experiencing an equivalent of that pre-ADWD period (but we shall see soon enough, when he writes another update, whenever that is going to be).
But what do you think?
(( Let the eternal war between the Summer Children and the Winter Wolves begin ! ))
More fun/interesting/intriguing things I found while being bored :
- First ever Not a Blog post, for those who are interested - Not A Blog - 2/7/2005
- " Oh, and I've also come up with a new title for the seventh (and final, I hope, I hope, I hope) volume of the series -- A DREAM OF SPRING." - this, that, and the other thing - 28/3/2006
- " I have a big conference call tomorrow about one project that cannot yet be announced" Birth of Game of Thrones? - This, That, and The Other Thing - 14/7/2006
- Game of Thrones is officially born - HBO options A SONG OF ICE AND FIRE - 17/1/2007
- " Maybe once I finish A SONG OF ICE AND FIRE, I will do a legal thriller set in the Seven Kingdoms next." - I'm Not a Lawyer... - 18/12/2007
- After a solved computer crash, George gives details on his DOS machine and his backup in case there is any accident. - Back In Business- 16/4/2009
- Someone made a song titled "George R.R.Martin Is Not Your Bitch" - Your Hit Parade - 13/8/2009
- Tyrion helps Jaime in figuring out how to defeat Cthulhu - Suvudu Cage Matches, Round Two - 17/3/2010
- Jaime fights Patrick Rothfuss's singing innkeeper Kvothe - Suvudu Final Four - 2/4/2010
- After Kvothe's defeat, Jaime prepares for his next challenge: a Trial of Seven. - Rand al'Thor Talks Trash - 5/4/2010
- Jaime's effing awesome Trial of Seven. - Trial of Seven - 10/4/2010
- George was hospitalized for a week. - Nightmare Before Christmas - 5/1/2011
- GRRM's Marriage - Big, Big, BIG News - 17/2/2011
- A prophecy threatens to come true! - Watch the Skies!- 30/3/2011
- April Fool's joke - Bantam To Split DANCE Into Five - 1/4/2011
- ADWD post-mortem - Talking About the Dance - 19/5/2011
TLDR: A list of every ADWD reference and allusion GRRM's made on NaB before he announced completion.

Analysis of My Tennis Results Over the Last Two Years and How Betting Lines as Early as Possible More than Doubled my Returns

Betting Early and Price Shopping

This graph shows my units gained and ROI from betting ATP tennis in 2019 & 2020. The blue line is my actual results over 615 bets in that time period. These are the odds I actually bet the matches at. The stats are as follows: 352-250-13, +77.32u, +8.9% ROI, +1.94% CLV, +12.3 average cents of CLV per bet, and I beat the closing line 70% of the time. You can see all my past bets here. Note: FWIW, people calculate CLV differently. I calculate it as the % difference in implied probability, some people do the expected value % way.
I decided to chart my returns as if I had made every bet at Pinnacle's closing line, the red line on the graph. The difference is quite noticeable. My returns betting at the closing line over those same 615 bets are as follows: +35.8u, +4.3% ROI. Getting on lines as early as possible (assuming you're on the right side) and shopping for the best prices even if its only between 2 or 3 books can make a massive difference in your results. I personally only shopped between BetOnline and Bookmaker as these books are better for tennis, but you could only imagine the insane advantage you could get shopping between 7-8 different books. Obviously many of us on sportsbook knew this was the case in theory, but I thought it would be cool for everyone to see the difference it can make over the longer-term: over multiple years and over 500+ bets, the added value from betting early and shopping for the best price will magnify your returns. After all, not many people track their results long enough to see this change. We're talking about getting only a 12 cent head start on the closing line, doubled my return after 600 picks.
It seems not all Pinnacle closing lines are as efficient as made out to be

I was a bit surprised to see my results at close still had a 4.3% ROI over 600 bets. This return over that sample is beginning to become statistically significant. Pinnacle is known for having some of the sharpest closing lines in the business. Now tennis isn't on the same level as, say, English Premier league, but what gives here?
This graph made by Pinnacle charts over 136,000 odds on tennis matches spanning from 2015-2019. As you can see there is an incredibly high degree of efficiency between the implied win % from the odds and the actual win % of those matches. (Note: the blue line is slightly below the yellow as the bookmaker's margin is not removed). Similarly, here is your ROI by odds groupings if you had blindly bet the Pinnacle closing line of every ATP main draw match since 2010. There's clearly a favorite-longshot bias in play here as underdog ROI's are in the negative double digits, but it seems Pinnacle's ATP closing lines are pretty efficient.
Obviously, my results betting at close vs the empirical data of over tens of thousands of ATP matches on Pinnacle are beginning to contradict each other. My opinion is that is that, although it’s true that Pinnacle closing lines are a great, if not the best, estimator of the true probabilities of a tennis match, this is only true ON AVERAGE. As bettors, we have the distinct advantage of being able to select bets where we believe the market is wrong. We don't have to bet every single match or game. In the span of 2019 and 2020 there were roughly 16,000 ATP and Challenger level tennis matches; I only bet about 3% of them.
It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that Pinnacle just fucks up on pricing a small percentage of their bets. On the other hand, a prevailing theory may also be that there is some sort of price anchoring going on between Pinnacle and their customers betting into the line. From Joseph Buchdahl's article on Pinnacle: "Let’s suppose instead that when a price longer than the ‘true’ price is published, it is more likely that it will close still longer than the ‘true’price. Conversely, when a shorter than ‘true’ price is published it is more likely to close still shorter than ‘true’. Why should this be the case? Well, since the ‘true’ price remains unknown, both to the bookmaker and their customers, the actual value of the opener could be hypothesized to act as a kind of anchor or reference point which biases judgement and restricts the magnitude of future movements. Sure, pricing mistakes will be exploited, but possibly not by as much as they should be. That, at least, is the idea" of price anchoring.
He goes on to say: The majority of bettors will probably look at the odds before deciding whether to bet rather than undertaking their own analysis to determine a ‘true’ outcome probability. Thus, when a bettor sees a bookmaker’s price of 2.25, they might take the view that the ‘true’ price is 2.05, and not 2.00. The act of observing the 2.25 may influence their judgement to the extent that they will deviate away from the ‘true’ price and towards the anchor price. A similar argument can be applied to prices shorter than ‘true’."
So, it's possible that there is some amount of price anchoring going on, and these closing prices are closing not long enough or not short enough from their fair values. It's also possible that I've just been getting astronomically lucky for the past two years, but we can only guess until I submit more bets.
CLV Matters

Although not all of these closing lines are efficient, my results are better as my CLV improves. See some of these stats for reference.

When getting positive no-vig CLV: +66.78u, +16.0 ROI% over 291 bets
When getting negative no-vig CLV: +10.55u, +2.33% ROI over 324 bets

When my closing line value does not even beat out the bookmaker's vig, the returns are a measly +10u over 324 bets. When I overcome the juice, my ROI skyrockets to 16% over 291 bets.
Lessons learned / Advice

Bet as early as your bet size will allow and shop for the best prices. It will lower the sportsbook's hold and will vastly improve your returns. This is the easiest way to improve your edge right off the bat. I think my results showed this.
Perhaps focus your betting on less efficient markets. Want to bet NFL or NBA for example? Focus on player props, instead of sides and totals. You're more likely to have an actual edge and are also more likely to find prices way off from the rest of the market
If you do decide to dabble in more efficient (hard-to-beat) markets, keep track of your CLV. Once you obsess over beating the closing line you become more price sensitive and more process oriented rather than results oriented. Your focus shifts to accumulating expected value over time that will produce results in the "long-term", rather than "trying to pick winners." on a day-to-day basis. CLV isn't the ultimate proxy for success, there are some exceptions, but the benefits a bettor achieves from making this his / her main focus cannot be overstated.

Anyways, sorry for the long post; hope you enjoyed the read. If you want to follow me this tennis season, I post everything in the Tennis Daily thread. I also have a telegram channel that you can follow so that you get notifications of when I bet. Reddit isn't always the best medium for sharing plays. The next tournament is in a few weeks with the Australian Open right around the corner. Best of luck!

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Match-up Preview Thread: #5 Cincinnati Bearcats at #10 Georgia Bulldogs

Capital One Orange Bowl Match-up Preview Thread: #17 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. #6 Texas A&M Aggies

nfl odds week 4 2020 video

To join our email list and get notified when we launch the 2021-22 NFL section (about a week before the season starts), register for a free account. 2020 NFL Week 4 Odds. Latest Odds Odds History Division: Team: Biggest Line Moves From Open. New Orleans at Detroit (Total) 5: San Francisco vs NFL odds, lines, spreads, picks, predictions for Week 17, 2020: Proven model loving Bears, Saints NFL bettors are keeping close tabs on which teams will rest their starters during the final week October 3, 2020 7:52 pm The NFL regular season continues with Week 4 on Sunday, but for the first time this season, the NFL is facing major coronavirus-related issues. NFL Week 4 Vegas spreads, betting odds: Titans slight favorites over Steelers in lone battle of unbeatens Pittsburgh at Tennessee is one of the marquee matchups of Week 4. By SportsLine Staff @ SportsLine Updated: Sep 28, 2020 1:00AM UTC. 4 min read. Here are the point spreads for all the NFL games being played in Week 4. Thursday, Oct. 1 (8:20 p.m. ET) Denver Broncos (-2.5) at New York Jets Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season is here. Get ready for it with this preview, which includes the full schedule, kickoff start times, TV and live stream viewing info, opening betting odds, pro NFL Week 4 Odds: Betting Lines, Spreads For All 16 Games. It’s hard to believe, but the first month of the 2020 NFL season is just about over, as the calendar turns to October to open Week 4. Cowboys vs. Eagles odds, line, spread: 2020 NFL picks, Week 16 predictions from proven projection... CBS Sports · 3 days ago. Dallas is 5-9 overall and 3-4 at home, while the Eagles are 4-9-1 and 1-6 on the road. The Cowboys... Football bettors can now view NFL Week 4 odds for the 2020 season here with lookahead lines. There are several big games including Steelers versus Titans. NFL odds, lines, picks, predictions for Week 4, 2020: Proven model backing Cowboys, Seahawks SportsLine's computer model simulated every Week 4 NFL game 10,000 times with surprising results.

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Week 4 NFL Game Picks! - YouTube

The Indianapolis Colts take on the Chicago Bears during Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season.Subscribe to NFL: http://j.mp/1L0bVBuCheck out our other channels:Para ... The Los Angeles Chargers take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season.Subscribe to NFL: http://j.mp/1L0bVBuCheck out our other chann... The New Orleans Saints take on the Detroit Lions during Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season.Subscribe to NFL: http://j.mp/1L0bVBuCheck out our other channels:Para ... Week 4 NFL Game Picks! Subscribe to NFL: http://j.mp/1L0bVBu Check out our other channels: NFL Vault http://www.youtube.com/nflvault NFL Network http://www.y... NFL Week 4 2020 Picks Straight up and Against The Spread Week 4 NFL 2020 Predictions with full game analysis and preview NFL 2020 Week 4 Game Picks Mitch of ... The Cleveland Browns take on the Dallas Cowboys during Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season.Subscribe to NFL: http://j.mp/1L0bVBuCheck out our other channels:Para m... The New England Patriots take on the Kansas City Chiefs during Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season.Subscribe to NFL: http://j.mp/1L0bVBuCheck out our other channel... Vegas Insider experts Kevin Rogers and Holden Kushner give their NFL predictions for five games in Week 4 of their Contest Picks. Rogers and Kushner offer th... The Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Cincinnati Bengals during Week 4 of the 2020 NFL season.Subscribe to NFL: http://j.mp/1L0bVBuCheck out our other channel...

Week	Cincinnati 9-0(7-0)	Result	Georgia 7-2(7-2)	Result
1	BYE	N/A	BYE	N/A
2	BYE	N/A	BYE	N/A
3	Austin Peay 0-3(0-0)	W 55-20	BYE	N/A
4	Army 9-2(0-0)	W 24-10	Arkansas 3-7(3-7)	W 37-10
5	USF 1-8(0-7)	W 28-7	Auburn 6-4(6-4)	W 27-6
6	BYE	N/A	Tennessee 3-7(3-7)	W 44-21
7	BYE	N/A	Alabama^{^#1} 11-0(11-0)	L 24-41
8	SMU 7-3(4-3)	W 42-13	BYE	N/A
9	Memphis 7-3(5-3)	W 49-10	Kentucky 4-6(4-6)	W 14-3
10	Houston 3-4(3-3)	W 38-10	Florida^{^#11} 8-3(8-3)	L 28-44
11	ECU 3-6(3-5)	W 55-17	BYE	N/A
12	UCF 6-3(5-3)	W 36-33	Mississippi State 3-7(3-7)	W 31-24
13	BYE	N/A	South Carolina 2-8(2-8)	W 45-16
14	BYE	N/A	BYE	N/A
15	BYE	N/A	Missouri 5-5(5-5)	W 49-14
16	Tulsa^{^#19} 6-2(6-1)	W 27-24	BYE	N/A

Player	Position	Status	Reported	Notes
James Wiggins	S	Ques Fri – Leg	Sat, Dec 26	Wiggins is dealing with a right leg injury, and it is unknown if he will be available for the Peach Bowl versus Georgia.
Gerrid Doaks	RB	Ques Fri – Leg	Mon, Dec 28	Doaks is managing a leg injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take on Georgia in the Peach Bowl.

Player	Position	Status	Reported	Notes
Justin Robinson	WR	Ques Fri – Shoulder	Sat, Dec 26	Robinson is dealing with a shoulder injury, leaving his availability for the Peach Bowl versus Cincinnati unknown.
Ben Cleveland	OL	Out For Season – Personal	Tue, Dec 29	Cleveland has opted out of the remainder of the 2020 season to focus on preparing for the NFL Draft.
Kendall Milton	RB	Ques Fri – Knee	Sat, Dec 26	Miltoin has been idle with an MCL sprain in his knee, and it is unclear if he will suit up in the Peach Bowl versus Cincinnati.
Julian Rochester	DL	Ques Fri – Undisclosed	Sat, Dec 26	Rochester has an undisclosed injury, leaving his status up in the air for the Peach Bowl against Cincinnati.
Ryland Goede	TE	Out For Season – Shoulder	Tue, Dec 8	Goede has a shoulder injury that requires season-ending surgery.
Monty Rice	LB	Out For Season – Personal	Sun, Dec 27	Rice has opted out of the remainder of the 2020 season to focus on preparing for the NFL Draft.
Walter Grant	LB	Out Indefinitely – Undisclosed	Sun, Nov 22	Grant has been sidelined due to an undefined injury, and it is undetermined when he will return to the fold.
Marcus Rosemy	WR	Out For Season – Ankle	Mon, Nov 9	Rosemy will miss the remainder of the 2020 season due to an ankle injury.
Richard Lecounte	DB	Out Indefinitely – Shoulder	Sun, Nov 1	Lecounte sustained a shoulder injury due to a motorcycle accident, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
Trey Hill	OL	Out For Season – Knee	Thu, Dec 3	Hill will miss the remainder of the 2020 season after undergoing knee surgery.
Tommy Bush	WR	Out Indefinitely – Concussion	Tue, Oct 13	Bush is experiencing concussion-like symptoms, and it is uncertain when he will return.
Dominick Blaylock	WR	Out For Season – Knee	Thu, Aug 27	Blaylock will miss the entire 2020 season due to a torn ACL in his left knee.

Week	North Carolina 8-3(7-2)	Result	Texas A&M 8-1(8-1)	Result
1	BYE	N/A	BYE	N/A
2	Syracuse 1-10(1-8)	W 31-6	BYE	N/A
3	BYE	N/A	BYE	N/A
4	BYE	N/A	Vanderbilt 0-9(0-9)	W 17-12
5	Boston College 6-5(5-4)	W 26-22	Alabama^{^#1} 11-0(11-0)	L 24-52
6	Virginia Tech 5-6(5-5)	W 56-45	Florida^{^#11} 8-3(8-3)	W 41-38
7	Florida State 3-6(2-5)	L 28-31	Mississippi State 3-7(3-7)	W 28-14
8	NC State^{^#25} 8-3(7-3)	W 48-21	BYE	N/A
9	Virginia 5-5(4-5)	L 41-44	Arkansas 3-7(3-7)	W 42-31
10	Duke 2-9(1-8)	W 56-24	South Carolina 2-8(2-8)	W 48-3
11	Wake Forest 4-4(3-4)	W 59-53	BYE	N/A
12	BYE	N/A	BYE	N/A
13	Notre Dame^{^#2} 10-1(0-0)	L 17-31	LSU 5-5(5-5)	W 20-7
14	Western Carolina 0-3(0-0)	W 49-9	Auburn 6-4(6-4)	W 31-20
15	Miami^{^#20} 8-2(7-2)	W 62-26	BYE	N/A
16	BYE	N/A	Tennessee 3-7(3-7)	W 34-13

Player	Position	Status	Reported	Notes
Bryce Watts	DB	Out For Season – Personal	Tue, Aug 25	Watts has informed the program that he will not take part in the 2020 season due to a personal reason.
Triston Miller	OL	Out For Season – Personal	Tue, Aug 25	Miller has ruled himself out of the entire 2020 campaign after letting the program aware of his reasons.
Javon Terry	DB	Out For Season – Personal	Tue, Aug 25	Terry has announced that he will not be a participant in the 2020 season due to a personal decision.
Ethan West	LB	Out For Season – Upper Body	Sat, Oct 10	West will miss the remainder of the 2020 season with an upper-body injury.
Kedrick Bingley Jones	DL	Out Indefinitely – Lower Body	Sun, Oct 11	Bingley-Jones is recovering from surgery to fix a lower-body injury. It is undetermined if he will make his season debut.
Ty Murray	OL	Out For Season – Undisclosed	Wed, Nov 11	Murray sustained an unspecified season-ending injury.
Beau Corrales	WR	Out For Season – Lower Body	Tue, Dec 8	Corrales is out of commission due to a lower-body injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
Michael Carter	RB	Out For Season – Personal	Mon, Dec 21	Carter has opted out of the remainder of the 2020 season to focus on preparing for the NFL Draft.
Dyami Brown	WR	Out For Season – Personal	Mon, Dec 21	Brown will sit out of the remainder of the 2020 season to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Javonte Williams	RB	Out For Season – Personal	Sat, Dec 26	Williams has opted out of the rest of the season to focus on preparing for the NFL Draft.
D.J. Jones	RB	Out Sat – Lower Body	Sun, Dec 27	Jones will not be available for the Orange Bowl versus Texas A&M due to a lower-body injury.
Obi Egbuna	DB	Ques Sat – Undisclosed	Mon, Dec 28	Egbuna is hindered by an unknown ailment, and it is unclear if he will take the field against Texas A&M in the Orange Bowl.
Storm Duck	DB	Ques Sat – Lower Body	Mon, Dec 28	Duck is tending to a lower-body, and it remains to be seen if he will partake in the Orange Bowl versus Texas A&M.
Chazz Surratt	LB	Out For Season – Personal	Mon, Dec 21	Surratt has opted to sit out the 2020 postseason as he prepares for the NFL Draft.

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