2020-21 NFL Playoff Odds Tracker - Sports Betting Dime

*Super Bowl 54. I'm an idiot.
I'm going to Vegas for a buddy's bachelor party in about 12 hours. It'll be my third trip to Sin City, but my first without my wife, so I'm expecting a very different experience this time, which includes at least one trip to one of the many sportsbooks on the strip.
According to some quick googling, it looks like the Colts are getting roughly 16:1 odds to win next year's Super Bowl, and that's one of a few futures bets I feel comfortable putting a small wager on to make this upcoming season a little more interesting. Why not, right?!
My questions to you guys and gals:
(1) Do you suggest any particular sportsbook on the strip? Now that March Madness is over, it will probably be pretty slow at all of them. We're staying at MGM (middle of strip) so we'll be central to many of the options. I've heard very good things about the books at Caesars Palace and the Wynn, in addition to Westgate, but I guess I'm most interested in whoever will offer the longest odds on the Colts
(2) While I'm there, would anyone else like to trust me, an internet stranger Colts Fan™, with a bet of your own? I don't want to mess with anything silly ("Houston Rockets playoff game 1 2nd half -5.5"), so I'd like to keep it to NFL futures bets (any team to win the upcoming season's division, conference or Super Bowl, or +/- a certain number of games), but if anyone is willing to pay upfront, I'm happy to help.
I know there are sites like Bovada to do the same from the comfort of your computer, but I like this old-school approach of getting a paper betting ticket and looking back on it throughout the season after every single game against the Jags, Bucs, and Raiders. I intend to do this trip on Sunday afternoon before my flight home (somewhere around 3-6pm EDT), so if you have any feedback or requests, please share them before then. Thanks!
Edit: I no numbers good

Degeneration Nation: best longshot prop bets

I would not recommend sports gambling unless you happen to have a load of disposal income. Hell, even then, I wouldn't recommend sports gambling. Unless you have some advanced analytical system or a Marty McFly sportsbook, it's a sucker's game and a surefire way to lose money over the long run.
THAT SAID, it's still fun to talk about. And once and a while, try to take a chance on some good value picks. I'm going to suggest a few of those here, although be warned that a) gambling is dumb, b) I am dumb. But hey here are my two cents anyway.

BEST LONGSHOT PROP BETS

Matthew Stafford: most passing yards, +1500 (15:1)
I'm taking these odds from the two most popular online sportsbook. On sportsbook.ag, Stafford was +1500 (15:1). On bovada, he's +1200 (12:1).
In either case, there's value there. The Detroit Lions are going to try to run the ball more often, but time will tell if that will actually work. And if it doesn't, Matt Stafford should be zipping passes all season long. New coach Matt Patricia comes from a New England franchise that had a lot of success with the volume passing game, so I don't think he'll have any qualms about letting Stafford rip as many times as necessary.
Last season, Stafford had 4446 passing yards, 3rd most in the NFL (and only 121 behind leader Tom Brady.) And for Stafford, that was no fluke. Since 2011, he's averaged 4562 passing yards per season. If he can simply hit that average, he'll be right in the mix for the most passing yards. There's no reason to think Stafford will struggle this year in particular; the Lions' receiving corps is one of the more underrated units in the league.
If you want to be even BOLDER, you can look at Stafford at for MVP (40:1 on both sites.) I don't project Detroit into the playoffs myself, but if you do, Stafford may parlay that into MVP buzz.
Saquon Barkley: most rushing yards, +1400 (14:1)
Note: this is only +1000 on bovada, at which point I may pass. But the 14:1 on sportsbook feels like solid value.
To me, Saquon Barkley is the best RB prospect of the 2000s. Now, does that mean he's going to be a surefire stud in the NFL? No, not at all. Does that mean he's going to be good as a rookie? Not necessarily. There are several factors working against him on that front. He's been struggling with a hamstring injury in the preseason. His offensive line is a "work in progress" (to be kind.) His coach Pat Shurmur is more of a passing game guru than running guru (his Vikings tended to struggle there.)
But when you're talking about odds like this, all you want is a credible chance. And I believe Barkley gives you that. He's going to be a workhorse with every opportunity to succeed. If Eli Manning and the Giants defense continue to struggle, perhaps Shurmur leans more heavily on the running game to help control the clock. Best of all, the "bar" isn't enormously high here. Last season, Kareem Hunt led the league with 1327 rushing yards. Barkley can theoretically match or exceed that mark.
To me, the biggest threat to win this crown would be Ezekiel Elliott, whom may be dinged slightly by the loss of his center Travis Frederick. There's an opening here for someone like Barkley to burst through the gates.
Amari Cooper: most receiving yards, +4000 (40:1)
Okay you want to get crazy? Let's get nuts. Cooper is 40:1 on both sites, well down the list of top contenders.
And it's easy to understand why he's being overlooked. Cooper was AWFUL last season. He registered a pathetic 48 receptions and 680 yards, good for # 51 in the league.
So how can # 51 rise to # 1? Opportunity. To win the "most receiving yards" crown, you need targets. Lots of targets. In Oakland, Cooper should be getting that. Jon Gruden is going to make Cooper the focal point of the passing game in a major way. Cooper averaged 131 targets in 2015-16, and may improve on those marks with Michael Crabtree out of the picture. I can easily see him being peppered with 150-160, even if it means forcefeeding him the ball. If he hits that 160 mark, he'd gain about 1300 yards based on his career yards/target average.
Unlike the running back position, the "bar" is going to be high at receiver. If they're healthy, Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham will be flirting with the 1500 mark. But hey, at 40:1, you're not looking for a surefire bet. You're buying a lottery ticket.
Christian Kirk (WR-ARI), offensive rookie of the year: +10,000 (100:1)
This is only +5500 (55:1) on bovada, but I'd still look at this either way. Kirk is the 20th highest player on the board, and good value at that spot.
Obviously, Saquon Barkley is the heavy favorite for this award. Hell, he may be the leading rusher in the NFL (as discussed.) But if Barkley does not live up to the/my hype, then there may be an opening here. Fellow top backs (Rashaad Penny, Ronald Jones, Sony Michel, Nick Chubb) have not secured a major role for their teams yet. Royce Freeman (DEN) is a major threat, but it's not like Denver is a powerhouse of an offense themselves.
In terms of quarterbacks, I don't see any of this particular class excelling out of the gates. With the exception of Baker Mayfield (who's a backup), they're all young and in need of some refinement. They'll get the headlines, but probably not this trophy.
Enter Kirk as a potential sleeper. One of my favorite pet theories regards the predictive quality of Immediate Impact. In college, it's very rare for a player to step right onto campus and make an impact as a true freshman (without a redshirt season first.) When they do, they often make a similar immediate impact in the NFL. Joey Bosa is a great example of this; the kid ripped it up for 7.5 sacks as a true freshman at Ohio State, and sure enough, looked ready from Day 1 in the NFL as well.
Receiver Christian Kirk had that same type of "immediate impact" at Texas A&M, leading the team with 1009 yards as a true freshman. Physically, he's not an overwhelming talent, but he's exceptionally polished and skilled for his age. Apparently he's been displaying that in Arizona already, which could translate into a major role. I wouldn't be shocked if he gets 800-900+ yards out of the gate.
Is he a likely rookie of the year? No. But hey, this is 100:1 we're talking about. All you want is a chance. And I believe he has that.
Derwin James: defensive rookie of the year, +1400 (14:1)
James is 14:1 on bovada, but only 10:1 on sportsbook. At 14:1, I'm looking hard at this bet.
Copy and paste what I wrote about "immediate impact" and apply it tenfold to Derwin James. As a true freshman at Florida State, he looked like a superstar, registering 91 total tackles, 4.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles from the safety position. An injury derailed his sophomore year, but he's now 2 years recovered from that and should be back to elite form. There aren’t many safeties like him. Ever. He's a 6'3" rocket launcher.
With the Chargers, Derwin James has every opportunity to shine. The Chargers may be a top 3 defense this year and a potential playoff force, keeping James in the spotlight. He can also be used in a variety of roles -- including as a pass rusher -- which should help bolster his stats.
Any "defensive rookie of the year" race is wide open because there are so many horses in the field, but James would be a top 3 candidate to me, at a very reasonable and discounted price here.
Von Miller: most sacks, +1800 (18:1)
Again, with a "long shot" bet, all you really want is a viable chance of success. Von Miller as the leading sack artist in the league? There's definitely a chance of that. He's recorded 10+ sacks in six of his seven years in the league, with the only exception in 2013 when he missed 7 games.
I wouldn't necessarily peg Miller as the favorite for this distinction (that would probably be Joey Bosa), but he offers the best value given these odds. Your hope here is that rookie DE Bradley Chubb takes some of the pressure off Miller, and allows him to rack up 14-15 sacks again. If the Denver Broncos offense plays a little better as a team, that should also help Miller's cause as well. Opponents didn't need to throw much on them last year -- registering just 491 passing attempts. If that numbers climbs back up to 520-530, then Miller will have more bites at the apple.

what's your favorite over/under bet?

If you're an average fan like myself with no secret statistical formula, gambling is a bad idea. Betting season oveunders is a really bad idea, because it ties up your money for months and months with only a 1:1 return.
That said, they're fun to talk about. Here would be my favorite ones, but I'd be curious about yours. These odds are based on bovada, but may vary according to different sites.
Tennessee Titans OVER 8.5 wins (-175)
Based on the extra vig, this is already a popular bet. In fact, the Jets under 4.5 wins is already so popular that it's marked -250, meaning you're betting $250 to win $100. I like the idea of betting against Christian Hackenberg and that passing game, but that's a little too much interest for my blood.
I can handle the -175 on Tennessee, because I'm a big fan of this team and the direction they've taken under GM Jon Robinson. Their running game may be the best in the NFL, and they've added pieces around Marcus Mariota like Corey Davis. The division doesn't scare you, either; in fact, their overall strength of schedule is .439, tied for the third easiest.
I'd pencil Tennessee in for around 10 wins, which gives me a little wiggle room to hit that "over." The only real concern I'd have is a Marcus Mariota injury, but the power running game and strong tackles should be able to keep him upright.
Seattle Seahawks OVER 10.5 wins (-140)
Offensive line...? Not Seattle's strong suit. The injury to George Fant is a concern, especially because it highlights the already-questionable depth there. I'm also not sold on Eddie Lacy or Thomas Rawls being able to sustain contact and get through the season at 100%.
That said, I still expect this Seahawks machine to keep rolling. Their defense is still one of the best in the league -- strong at all three levels. And Russell Wilson is the type of QB who can still overcome a weak line. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if he puts up crazy fantasy numbers as a reason -- 4000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards is in play here.
The NFC West should be better and a little stronger than the Hawks' .455 strength of schedule suggests, but again, it's not a real scary schedule to combat. I'd expect 11-5 or even 12-4 for this team.
Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 6.5 wins (+105)
Based on their young studs, there's an argument that the Jaguars could be a sleeper playoff team with average QB play. Not sure they're going to get that.
The Jags can try to manage Blake Bortles, or try to replace him with a vet like Chad Henne, but that's not a sustainable recipe for success to me. I wouldn't be surprised if they toggle QBs and even give some time to young Brandon Allen. All in all, it's hard to imagine a team with a major question mark like that can still get to 7-9.
Baltimore Ravens UNDER 8 wins (-115)
You can find Baltimore under "8.5" at most sites, so I'd obviously recommend that instead, but I figured I needed to stay consistent and not cherry pick.
Obviously, John Harbaugh is a great captain and kept the team afloat at 8-8 last year. But there are some cracks in this ship, including a QB in Joe Flacco who's been mediocre ever since the Super Bowl run. His playmakers don't excite me either. I imagine a lot of sluggish drives and a lot of checkdowns to Danny Woodhead; in fact, I wouldn't be shocked if Woodhead leads the team in receptions if he stays healthy.
For the Ravens, the most important questions may be deeper ones. Can newly signed Jeremy Zuttah help plug a hole in the middle of that offensive line? Can young edge rushers Tyus Bowser and Tim Williams provide the pass-rushing help that the aging Terrell Suggs needs? Those two questions may determine whether the Ravens can contend for the playoffs again, or whether they're going to slip down into 6-10 or 7-9 territory.

NFL Futures: Team O/U wins and to make playoffs

Sunday Player Props

As always, the player prop lines come from https://sports.bovada.lv/football/nfl-playoffs/qb-props-market-group (you can use the drag down menu to see each set of props)
Vegas likes Aaron Rodgers to continue his streak of big games, opening his yardage prop at 295.5 (-125 over) and it’s already moved up to 300.5 (-125 over). Similar to Matt Ryan’s yardage prop yesterday, the quick movement makes me think Vegas likes him for a big day. The TD prop for ARod is set at 2.5 with even money on the bet (-115 both sides). On the other side of the ball, Dallas QB Dak Prescott has a yardage total prop of 242.5 (-130 over and a passing TD prop of 1.5 (-140 over). These numbers indicate that Dak could very well be a good, cheap contrarian pivot with some upside today.
In the late game Big Ben has a yardage prop of 265.5 (-125 over) with a TD prop of 2 at even money (-115 both sides). Alex Smith’s yardage prop is 249.5 (even -115 both sides) and a TD passing prop of 1.5 with -125 on the under. Of note, Smith has scored a Rushing TD in 3 straight games and Vegas lists him as +1800 to score the first TD in this game. That might be worth a wager. (Oddly enough, there is not a listed line for him as an “anytime TD scorer”)
Vegas really likes Elliott and Bell today, posting their rushing yardage totals at an identical 109.5. Zeke is favored on the over at -135 closely followed by Bell on the over at -130. Of interest, I believe Bell’s rushing prop originally opened up at 104.5 so it’s been bet up slightly. Elliott is listed as an anytime TD prop of -225 while Bell’s odds are listed at -175. Elliott’s receiving prop is 22.5 (-125 over) with Bell at 42.5 (-125 over). Ty Montgomery has a rushing prop of 37.5 and receiving prop of 25.5 (both -125 over). His TD prop is +125. In the last game, Spencer Ware has a rushing prop of 67.5 (even -115 both sides) and receiving yardage prop of 19.5 (-125 over). His TD prop is the same as Montgomery at +125.
For Receivers Vegas seems to like the three primary Packer targets to go over their yardage props: Adams, 75.5 (-130 over), Cobb, 59.5 (-140 over) and Cook, 49.5 (-130 over). Their corresponding catch props are 5.5 (-150 over), 5 (-140 over) and 4 (-150 over). Adams has a TD prop of -115, Cobb is even money and Cook is +200 to score a TD. On the other side of the ball, Dez Bryant leads the yardage prop bets with 70.5 (-130 over) followed by Cole Beasley at 49.5 (-125 over), Jason Witten at 40.5 (-130 over) and Terrance Williams at 32.5 (-135 over). For Receptions both Bryant (-155 over) and Beasley (-125 over) are pegged at 4.5, with Witten at 4 (-125 over) and Williams at 2.5 (-165 over). The Williams over really stands out and makes me think Vegas is predicting a couple of big plays from Williams today. Bryant has a TD prop of -115, Beasley is at +150, Witten is at +175 and Williams is at +225.
Finally, in the late game, Antonio Brown has the highest receiving yardage prop of the day at 90.5 (-130 over) followed by Travis Kelce at 67.5 (-125 over). They are followed by Jeremy Maclin at 47.5 (-125 over) and Tyreek Hill and Eli Rogers both at 45.5 (-125 over). Similarly Brown and Kelce lead the way with catch props of 6.5 for Brown (-150 over) and 5.5 for Kelce (-130 over). Maclin has a catch prop of 4, but with -125 on the under. Hill has a catch prop of 4 with -125 on the over and Rogers is at 3.5 but with -140 on the over. Brown has a TD prop of -135, Hill is at +125, Kelce at +150 and Maclin at +175.
Good luck

bovada nfl playoff odds video

The NFL Playoffs begin in early January once the regular season has concluded. Just as winter begins to set in, betting on the NFL and their highly-contested postseason matchups can always be counted on to provide plenty of heat. Now, there's an extra team in the postseason mix for each conference creating a 14-team NFL playoff bracket for the first time ever. The 2020 NFL regular season concludes January 3, 2021 with, for the first time in NFL history, the top seven teams from each conference moving onto the 2020-21 NFL Playoffs, which are set to begin January 9, 2021. We’ve been tracking the odds for all 32 teams to make the playoffs from the time the odds opened and will continue to do so right through to Week 17. Football odds, lines, spreads and props. Bet on Football Bovada NFL Football betting odds for every game during the season including the Super Bowl from Bovada Sportsbook. NFL Playoff Odds: 2021. NFL Playoff odds for the 2021 postseason are presented as futures, a term given to betting lines for events that have yet to take place. Futures lines are available for division winners, conference winners, and the eventual Super Bowl 55 champion. Below are examples of NFL Playoff futures odds that were posted at Bovada Why The NFL Playoff Picture 2020-21 Bracket Matters. Its easy to look at a list of teams and their money line odds and simply select the franchise that seems to be the best among them, but only when looking at what the odds mean when applied to a potential NFL Playoff bracket in 2020-21 can a proper decision be made. NFL Playoff Odds If you were excited about the NFL postseason before, things were made even more exciting in 2021, as it was announced that there will now be 14 teams in the mix of things for you NFL Playoffs Odds instead of 12. Betting on NFL Playoff odds isn't easy because projection models that worked during the regular season tend to differ in the postseason. In addition to looking at the current NFL Playoff picture, we’ll offer some strategies to help you adapt to the postseason when wagering at the best NFL betting sites.. We also want to provide you with our list of the best legal USA sportsbook sites for Las Vegas Sports Betting and Bovada Sportsbook have joined forces to generate the most complete odds and game matchups site on the Web. View the most up-to-date odds for all NFL Football, MLB baseball, NBA Basketball, NASCAR, NHL Hockey, WNBA Basketball, and NCAA college football and basketball games, updated every two minutes. NFL Odds, Lines, Spreads and Props Bovada. There are currently no upcoming betting odds or lines available for the selected market type for this event path.

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2020-21 NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Betting Odds ...

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2020-21 NFL Playoff Odds Tracker - Sports Betting Dime

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2017 NFL Betting Odds - Bovada's Odds for All 32 NFL Teams to Make NFL Playoffs

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Colts Super Bowl 53 futures bet